Tennis Random, Random (On Court)

[Suliso]

I'm guessing you're right, but we've had several bigger names that have been a bit younger than that recently. Aga, Julia, Domi, and Ana come to mind in addition to Caro.

Right, but on the other end Serena and Venus are still playing. Julia retired at 31, by the way.

[atlpam]

Yes, but that also was much sooner than most. I think the average is more like 32-33 these days.

I'm guessing you're right, but we've had several bigger names that have been a bit younger than that recently. Aga, Julia, Domi, and Ana come to mind in addition to Caro.

I'm sure the desire to start a family influences this decision for some. It was important to me to have my first child before turning 30. Although many people wait longer these days, there are also good health reasons to start earlier.
This is why it makes it more important to make it easier for players to return after pregnancy if they choose.

[ponchi101]

Serena, Venus and Roger are the exceptions, not the rule. Sure, Venus is dependent on WC's to get into tournaments. AT 40. Still pretty good.
We will see how long can Novak keep it going, and he may be an exception too.
Other than that, they start declining at 30, it takes them a year or two to accept it. I gather 7 or 8 first round losses in a row is what opens their eyes.

[Deuce]

Crap... I suppose that means no Kki/Coco doubles team .
And she has 2 Cocos to choose from!

[ti-amie]

It looks like they missed Fuscovic's visit to the ATP offices...

[ponchi101]

[Suliso]

We've discussed post big 3 era of ATP a fair bit, but how about looking at next 5 years of WTA? Who will be the top players and consistent title winners? I deliberately leave the bar relatively low - at least 2 GS titles between this Wimbledon and Wimbledon 2026.

I think we can agree to ignore anyone who was born in 1991 or earlier.

Here is my list and very subjective assessment of future prospects (Slams won already in parenthesis)

Naomi Osaka (4) - high chance of winning more
Sofia Kenin (1) - not convinced there will be more
Bianca Andreescu (1) - great game, but health very suspect
Iga Swiatek (1) - high chance of winning more
Garbine Muguruza (2) - moderate chance of winning more
Ashleigh Barty (1) - moderate chance of winning more
Barbora Krejcikova (1) - most likely one and done

Aryna Sabalenka - strong game, but mentally suspect
Karolina Pliskova - I think her train has left the station
Coco Gauff - I think the best chance among those without a Slam already
Elena Rybakina - could it be?
Madison Keys - can she can back to her former level?
Paula Badosa - looks well balanced
Marketa Vondrousova - here on account of her RG final

And then there are few teenagers unlikely to be a threat this year and next, but we're talking five here - Kostyuk, Anisimova and Tauson.

Did I forget someone with a clear two Slam potential? Disagree with any of my choices?

[ponchi101]

M. C. Osorio will have a chance at RG in the next 5 years. She will need a better training team, and she is undersized, but that is where such players tend to make up for their lack of height.
How about Sidanzek? Just had a good run at RG, and the forehand is beautiful.
Madison: I just don't see tennis as her real passion. If she losses, she is always fine. I find her too balanced a person to put the final effort. Would love to see her do it, though.
Mugu... how I wish I could agree with you. But she is incessantly injured and she has never been a huge striker of the ball. I just don't know (I know, I included her in my Wimby possibles, but she is so great at disappointing that I don't know).

[Deuce]

And then there are few teenagers unlikely to be a threat this year and next, but we're talking five here - Kostyuk, Anisimova and Tauson.

Did I forget someone with a clear two Slam potential? Disagree with any of my choices?

I don't see Anisimova doing anything special. I think she'll stay somewhere between 20 and 40 in the rankings, and never threaten to win a Major.
The other two kids you mention fall into the 'to be determined' category for me. They both impressed in Juniors, but I haven't seen enough of either at the WTA level to predict anything.

I'd like to say that Leylah has the potential to win a Major... but at this point, I honestly don't see that happening. She has definitely surprised a bunch of people several times already with what she's achieved in her brief time at the WTA level though - so I wouldn't count her out of anything.

[Suliso]

Fernandez is undersized and underpowered, I don't see her winning Slams either. Kostyuk and Tauson are not therefore I assigned them a higher chance. Of course it could be I guessed the wrong players from that age group.

[ponchi101]

You have documented very well Leylah's progress this year, Deuce, but at 5'4" it will be very hard to match the power of all the 6 footers that abound the tour. A long career hovering around #25 is very possible, but she will need something really special to make up for her lack of size.
Being left handed might help.

[ponchi101]

Ok. Time for another AITA.
Roger retires from RG citing the need to listen to his body. But then he loses his first match at Halle and, with only one more week before Wimby, he does not even do the Novak and takes a WC in doubles at Mallorca? Again, AITA, but he needs court time now. His problem against FAA was that he could not even touch his serve, and you can't practice that on a practice court: you need to go out there and face real people trying to ace you for real.
For all the talk during all his career about all his great strokes, his return of serve was never mentioned when it was a superb shot. He used to tee off Roddick's FIRST SERVE and put people on the defensive immediately when he was returning. No way he can emulate that just practicing.

[Suliso]

You have documented very well Leylah's progress this year, Deuce, but at 5'4" it will be very hard to match the power of all the 6 footers that abound the tour. A long career hovering around #25 is very possible, but she will need something really special to make up for her lack of size.
Being left handed might help.

You exaggerate a bit how small she is. Listed height is 5'6''. That is the same as Simona Halep but I don't see the same power and speed as Simona has.

[ponchi101]

I got the 5'4" from the WTA site:

Screenshot 2021-06-20 113136.jpg

Where you got yours? Kind of funny that there are different data. Then again, maybe she was 5'4" last year and the WTA has not updated her bio, and she has grown those two inches this year.

[Suliso]

Yours must be more accurate then. I just took mine from Wikipedia.