Talk About Tennis 2.0

Djokovic 50%
Berretini 20%
Nadal 15%
Hurkacz 10%
Kyrgios 5%

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:44 pm I agree that the BH is his less stellar shot. But he can defend with it, albeit not as well as Novak, with the slice. It floats a bit too much but it can work on grass.
Anyway, I say that if you win two grass events prior to the big one, you have done more than most others to get a mention in the "possible winners" conversation.

Oh Berrettini certainly deserves a mention. But I am now increasingly believing in the 'peak at the wrong time' theory ..players who win the tune-up events seldom win the big one..see Italian and French, Eastbourne/Qeens and Wimbledon...those who only do well- going to the finals, semis, seem to do better..hence Ostapenko and BHM , Andreescu, even Halep but not Garcia, Kvitova, Berrettini..they have peaked too early, in my opinion...playing like this 2 weeks later would have been better for them.Of course, the great ones, like Federer and Nadal, can win Halle and Wimbledon, Rome and RG but that is an example of 'the exception proves the rule' ..you have to be THAT great..

I say you still have Swiatek and Djokovic too high. Djokovic is the favorite, but not at 50%.
For the women: There is nobody with more than 10% chance, apart from Swiatek. I accept she is the favorite, but that streak has to end sometime, I believe in rest (a little bit) but no tournaments on grass, to me, was a mistake, and she does not have the serve or volleys to make her that prohibitive a favorite.
30% at best

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:16 am I say you still have Swiatek and Djokovic too high. Djokovic is the favorite, but not at 50%.
For the women: There is nobody with more than 10% chance, apart from Swiatek. I accept she is the favorite, but that streak has to end sometime, I believe in rest (a little bit) but no tournaments on grass, to me, was a mistake, and she does not have the serve or volleys to make her that prohibitive a favorite.
30% at best

Probabilities are difficult to argue about but would you take the field over Djokovic,? I would give the two eventualities 'Djoko' and 'not Djoko' an equal chance...evidently you think 'not Djoko' is much more likely than 'Djoko'..,about 70-30, in fact..sounds high to me!

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:13 am

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 3:44 pm I agree that the BH is his less stellar shot. But he can defend with it, albeit not as well as Novak, with the slice. It floats a bit too much but it can work on grass.
Anyway, I say that if you win two grass events prior to the big one, you have done more than most others to get a mention in the "possible winners" conversation.

Oh Berrettini certainly deserves a mention. But I am now increasingly believing in the 'peak at the wrong time' theory ..players who win the tune-up events seldom win the big one..see Italian and French, Eastbourne/Qeens and Wimbledon...those who only do well- going to the finals, semis, seem to do better..hence Ostapenko and BHM , Andreescu, even Halep but not Garcia, Kvitova, Berrettini..they have peaked too early, in my opinion...playing like this 2 weeks later would have been better for them.Of course, the great ones, like Federer and Nadal, can win Halle and Wimbledon, Rome and RG but that is an example of 'the exception proves the rule' ..you have to be THAT great..

To put it differently .those who think Berrettini will win, are positing that he is as great as Federer, McEnroe, Becker..seems a bit of a stretch to me.

ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Jun 25, 2022 7:09 pm The article is paywalled so this is the next best thing.

...

Catherine Ann Whitaker is a British sports reporter, presenter and commentator for both television and radio, who has covered tennis and other sports for Eurosport, Amazon Prime Video UK, BBC Radio 5 Live, BeIn Sports, Perform and IMG Media. Wikipedia

The article can be read here...

'Imagine Being Forced to Wear White on Your Period'...

I'd like to say "Big deal - if a photo is taken which shows a little red from a player's period, it means only that she is a normal, healthy, functioning female - and that's nothing to be ashamed of or embarrassed about."
But I suppose society hasn't progressed to that point yet.

I see it like nudity... here in North America, nudity is automatically intertwined with sexuality. In many European countries, nudity can - and does - exist independent of sexuality. And their levels of things like teenage pregnancies and STDs are far lower than the levels in North America.
In North America, nudity - whole or partial - is considered 'vulgar, or 'indecent', or 'obscene' - because it is so automatically linked to sex. Imagine - the natural human body - an unaltered product of nature - is considered obscene and vulgar! Talk about an unhealthy perspective!
There is a HUGE difference between someone skinny dipping - or even lying in a park nude - and someone performing a sex act (alone or with someone else) in public. But in North America's twisted view, they are all the same.

If you see someone naked, you aren't seeing something exclusive - you're seeing body parts which half of the planet's population shares. Every second person has those body parts. And so what, exactly, is the reason to keep them a big secret?
It defies logic.

We are conditioned to be ashamed of our bodies if they do not match the unreal (literally) photoshopped bodies of 'famous' celebrities. This is part of the reason we hide our nudity - out of this shame. It's incredibly unhealthy psychologically and emotionally.
We shouldn't be flaunting our naked bodies - but we shouldn't be ashamed and terrified of nudity, either. We should view nudity everywhere just like we view nudity in a locker room - it's not flaunted, but it's there. And it's not a big deal at all.
And it's not inherently sexual. It's only sexual if the CONTEXT is sexual.

The naked human body is a natural phenomenon. One can certainly be nude without engaging in sexual activity - just like grapes can be eaten on their own without being produced into wine.
And a woman's period is a natural function of the natural human body.
Why are these things made into a huge 'unacceptable' deal?? Here in North America, we have an extremely immature perspective on the natural human body and its functions.

I understand the women being concerned about wearing all white at Wimbledon for this reason. But, when dissected as to what it really means, evidence of a woman having her period is nothing to be ashamed of. It's perfectly normal.
We need to stop allowing 'society' to determine what is 'good' and what is 'bad', and what is acceptable and what is not - and what is 'comfortable' and what is 'uncomfortable' - because 'society' is wrong more often than it is right - especially here in North America.

saw a report somewhere that Nadal played a couple of practice matches on grass and lost both of them - to FAA and Tiafoe..in the last couple days.. not good

It seems to me that Nadal goes to a different level when it comes to playing a slam. Now I don't know if he will be able to beat Djokovic or even Berretini, but he will be right there at the end and in the mix of it all.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:13 am saw a report somewhere that Nadal played a couple of practice matches on grass and lost both of them - to FAA and Tiafoe..in the last couple days.. not good

Yes, it's the Giorgio Armani Tennis Classic.

https://www.giorgioarmanitennisclassic.com/

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:34 am ...
To put it differently .those who think Berrettini will win, are positing that he is as great as Federer, McEnroe, Becker..seems a bit of a stretch to me.

I think that at the moment, anybody other than Matteo's family posting that he is as great as those three has to take an anti-doping test. That squarely lands on the "non-sense" side, to me.
He is good, he has a good chance this year. That is as far as I go.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:13 am saw a report somewhere that Nadal played a couple of practice matches on grass and lost both of them - to FAA and Tiafoe..in the last couple days.. not good

Eh, I wouldn't worry about it. He probably wasn't pushing himself. Might have been working on something. It's similar to the three matches Medvedev lost on grass with bad scorelines this month - the takeaway is that he wasn't playing with full motivation given the circumstances, not that he's bad on grass.