Talk About Tennis 2.0

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:02 pm Uhm... these are the best 8 players in the world. I just can't give anybody 90% chance of winning. Not nowadays. As good as Iga is, she is no Serena or Steffi or Martina.
60% chance of winning. The rest of the field splits the rest, and not evenly.

are they, really, the 8 best? Rybakina?

anyway, even if they are, one can be much better than the rest, cant they? Non Sequitur !!

anyone know what the courts are like? slow? fast? high bounce? low bounce?

Snow White and the 7 dwarves! Seems appropriate...for this tournament...

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:56 am

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:02 pm Uhm... these are the best 8 players in the world. I just can't give anybody 90% chance of winning. Not nowadays. As good as Iga is, she is no Serena or Steffi or Martina.
60% chance of winning. The rest of the field splits the rest, and not evenly.

are they, really, the 8 best? Rybakina?

They were the 8 best this year. But I'd still take Osaka over some of them. Maybe even in her current form. I really hope Osaka recommits to tennis full time. It kills me that a superstar is on the sidelines. Tennis needs her.

Such a shame that Rybakina isn't there... although she did lose to Clara Burel at the US Open, 4 and 4.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:56 am

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:02 pm Uhm... these are the best 8 players in the world. I just can't give anybody 90% chance of winning. Not nowadays. As good as Iga is, she is no Serena or Steffi or Martina.
60% chance of winning. The rest of the field splits the rest, and not evenly.

are they, really, the 8 best? Rybakina?

anyway, even if they are, one can be much better than the rest, cant they? Non Sequitur !!

Oh, sure. If you look at the numbers, Iga more than doubles in points the #2 player, Ons. Maybe she is really on her way to becoming a double digits Slam winner.
But we said that about Naomi a couple of years ago, and we have seen what happened.
My only disagreement with you is your 90% vs my 60%. But I expect her to win, too.

About Rybakina. For some reason, the WTA site is not showing her match-history right now. And yes, I know she won Wimbledon. But she has not done much more since.
Anyway, we know we usually disagree about the rankings

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:06 pm

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:56 am

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:02 pm Uhm... these are the best 8 players in the world. I just can't give anybody 90% chance of winning. Not nowadays. As good as Iga is, she is no Serena or Steffi or Martina.
60% chance of winning. The rest of the field splits the rest, and not evenly.

are they, really, the 8 best? Rybakina?

anyway, even if they are, one can be much better than the rest, cant they? Non Sequitur !!

Oh, sure. If you look at the numbers, Iga more than doubles in points the #2 player, Ons. Maybe she is really on her way to becoming a double digits Slam winner.
But we said that about Naomi a couple of years ago, and we have seen what happened.
My only disagreement with you is your 90% vs my 60%. But I expect her to win, too.

About Rybakina. For some reason, the WTA site is not showing her match-history right now. And yes, I know she won Wimbledon. But she has not done much more since.
Anyway, we know we usually disagree about the rankings

I just google "NAME results" and they come up in a timeline format at the top that's very easy to flip through. Rybakina is 12-8 since Wimbledon, but she has lost five times to eventual title winners (one was a final). Probably would help if she had Wimbledon points and was seeded at more tournaments. Here's her post-Wimbledon:

San Jose - lost to Kasatkina... won the first set, then lost 2 and 0! Kasatkina won the title.
Canada - lost to Gauff in a third-set TB
Cincinnati - lost quarterfinal to Keys right after Keys beat Swiatek
US Open - lost first round to Burel
Slovenia - lost final to Siniakova 7-6, 6-7, 4-6, who of course won the title.
Japan - lost early to Samsonova in straights. Samsonova won the title.
Tallinn - withdrew first round
Ostrava - lost to Krejcikova 6-4 in the third. Krejcikova won the title.
San Diego - withdrew first round
Guadalajara - lost to Pegula in Guadalajara 10-8 in the third. Pegula won the title.

I guess I stand corrected. Thanks.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 25, 2022 5:55 pm I guess I stand corrected. Thanks.

I had that impression, too, then I looked at her results and at least on paper they weren't bad. Surprised she lost a final to Siniakova, though.

Fabulous research! But if we simply add 2000 points to Rybakina for Wimbledon, she would be at 3860, comfortably qualified.#4 in fact.

So, basically, Wimbledon doesn't count toward the WTA Finals, but it does count toward the ATP Finals?
Hmmm....

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 2:07 am Fabulous research! But if we simply add 2000 points to Rybakina for Wimbledon, she would be at 3860, comfortably qualified.#4 in fact.

Point granted. The AELTC really screwed up with that decision to ban Russians and Belarusians. And it spilled from there.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 2:07 am Fabulous research! But if we simply add 2000 points to Rybakina for Wimbledon, she would be at 3860, comfortably qualified.#4 in fact.

I didn't go that way because I didn't want to recalculate everyone's points with Wimbledon results. With a quick glance, I think Rybakina would still be #4, though. Currently, #4 is Gauff and she would only add 90 points, so Rybakina would still be above her with W points.

Besides how many points should we add for Sabalenka and Kasatkina who were unable to play?

Suliso wrote: ↑Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:01 am Besides how many points should we add for Sabalenka and Kasatkina who were unable to play?

Maybe add their 2021 points for a gauge. But they made the top 8 anyway. Rybakina didn't. Kudermatova was the other one who might have gotten screwed by not having any Wimbledon points, since she was only defending 10 points and just missed out on the Top 8.