Talk About Tennis 2.0

Federex wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 5:49 pm I used to pick players that are not likely to win next round in the early rounds, but now I think it is unnecessary risk. Even if a couple of the R1 R2 picks get to R16, there are usually still enough good picks left, as long as those players dont get into QF.
It is far better to go through into R16 and then worry about any congestion. And at AO we got a medal for making 6 picks anyway.

Federex wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 6:44 pm You can actually afford two of your early picks get to QF, from R16 you need 2 winners and so you would have picked 4 out of 8 quarterfinalist, and have exactly 4 to pick for the 2 QF, 1 SF and 1 final.

It is too tight of course, so I would avoid picking a player early if I think they are going to QF, but i dont see a problem picking anyone going out in R16 when there is no good safe pick.
(And can even actually afford 2 of those going 1 round deeper than you think)

Of course if there is a player that you are confident in winning in R1 and lose before round 16, that is ideal and i would make such a pick too. I just wont force myself to make such a pick when i dont think it is safe enough.

Player like Khachanov is almost always going out in R16, then it doesnt matter too much (normally) if you use him R1, R2 or R3, so if you dont see any safe pick in any of those day, it is not a problem for me to burn such a player in R1.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 7:05 pm Look at it in the reverse.
It is better to have 2 players already used in the QF, because, after all, you will have at a minimum 1 (the player you picked the day before), than to have no players left for the QF's because you died in day 2.
There is a reason it is called a SURVIVORS pool and not a CAREFUL PICKERS pool.

Federex wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 7:04 pm I agree there is surprise...but sometimes the surprise cost you the pool anyway.. like Rublev!
I just think picking a couple of mid-seed R1/R2 is perfectly fine and still left enough options late on.

Not that i am advocating picking mid-seeds for all R1/R2 picks..even though in theory you can beat the draw doing that, but that would leave too little flexibility as you rightfully point out..

Grancordero wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 7:59 pm I think you´re both right...

Best way to get a medal: Keep it safe and hope for a bandwagon to meet cliff when you´re not in it.

Best way to beat the draw: Take risks as soon as possible and leave yourself as many options in the last rounds.

(I play it safe, but I´m just a starter, Megan is a pro, no motivation in just beating the bunch of us)

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 4:48 pm Day 7 Summary
Starting and remaining: 37

Rune 17
Fritz 17
Paul 3

Day 7 picks pending
Dimitrov 15
Hurkacz 4

Grancordero wrote: ↑Sat Jun 01, 2024 11:52 pm I picked Djokovic in R2 expecting him to lose to either Musetti or Cerúndolo. Let's hope it works alright. I feel very unsure about the other side of the draw, tbh. Play it safe and pick Sinner or go for the gamble with Hurkacz and improve my chances of beating the draw? Dimitrov has never lost to Hubi, so maybe my decision sums up the conversation here: hold on for one more day and see how the others fare or go for the jackpot?

nelslus wrote: ↑Fri May 31, 2024 8:46 pm My original pick was going to be Dimitrov. And THEN I thought, you never know when Dimitrov is gonna fall apart....OR go further in the draw from his section....and certainly Rublev is only good for another win or two. So, HEY, here's a great thought.....I'll pick RUBLEV!!!!!!!