Talk About Tennis 2.0

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 4:55 pm

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 3:27 pm I know, but that was after she had already FALLEN (in the rankings) and was already pretty much a non-factor.
Really, remember. She was playing very good tennis, she had strokes and she was accurate. How did it vanish so fast, so early?

Yeah, she had a slump after 2014, but when she hit her head at the US Open, she was finding her form again. I remember it so clearly. She was actually having a good tournament, a sorely needed good result. That's part of what made it so unfortunate. Would she have kept it up? Who knows.

One of her former coaches said on a podcast that she didn't train very hard with him. Lots of off days.

I guess a lot of players are the real deal, tennis-wise, but not everyone wants to do what it takes to max out their potential. I say that without any judgment. It's hard. She had a decent career but left some stuff on the table.

^ That's being quite kind.
She had a good year.
I think the reason she (Bouchard) declined so quickly is both simple and multi-fold:
Firstly, the other players rather quickly learned how to best play her; she wasn't willing to put in the time and effort to adjust to her opponents learning how to play her; and she saw that she could be globally 'famous' without winning any more tennis matches, and instead by simply showing her ass in photo shoots. She became more of a 'model' than a tennis player.
So... why work on your game and make all that effort to improve when everyone will 'love' you anyway if you simply show them various body parts in flirtatious, 'sexy' poses?

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 11:21 pm A bit insulting to place the Russians in the "withdrawal" list. Call it what it is. "Not accepted". Withdrawal sounds as if it is their decision.

meganfernandez wrote: ↑Wed Jun 08, 2022 11:56 pm

ponchi101 wrote:A bit insulting to place the Russians in the "withdrawal" list. Call it what it is. "Not accepted". Withdrawal sounds as if it is their decision.

“Screwed Over” list

^ Yeah - that'll do.
I was thinking the 'Guilt By Association' list... or the 'Stereotyped' list... or the 'Unjustly Discriminated Against' list...
... Or the 'Asterisk Provoking' list...

This is all it took to get my hopes up for Garbi at Wimbledon, which seems pretty wide open (although I expect Swiatek to be formidable there, too). Weird that she has done well at Wimbledon (a title and a final) because I don't think of her as a superb mover. She often looks hunched over or off balance when she swings. Maybe I'm wrong.

Also: new racquet. Same brand, of course, but that is not her regular Pure Drive. Or at least the cosmetics are different.
Wimby is her most successful slam, as you say. And she likes it. Won't raise my hopes too high, but we know her: she goes months with no good results after a big win (Guadalajara last year) and then, bang, she wins something important. Let's hope she does well.

Actually there is no reason not to say Swiatek is favorite for Wimbledon...the court has slowed down over the years, and Nadal has shown that his kind of game can work on grass...

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:51 am Actually there is no reason not to say Swiatek is favorite for Wimbledon...the court has slowed down over the years, and Nadal has shown that his kind of game can work on grass...

It's just a very different surface, even if it is a little slower than in the past. She won the juniors there, and for me, she is the favorite but not the runaway favorite at this point. New tournament, new surface, new factors.

But they all are in the same situation. Former champions like Kerber and Mugu are not playing great. FInalist Pliskova neither. I would say she is not as much of a favorite as for RG, but she is still the favorite.
Just not over the field.

I say that a former Wimbledon finalist will win it this year...

This player will take advantage of everyone being distracted by the discriminatory ban of Russian and Belarusian players and the removal of points for the tournament, and stealthily work her way through the draw. No-one will notice her until she reaches the Semi-Final... And by then, it will be too late - she'll be on a roll, and her opponents in the Semi-Final and Final will be caught unprepared... leading to this player winning it all in her second opportunity.

That player is...

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:01 am But they all are in the same situation. Former champions like Kerber and Mugu are not playing great. FInalist Pliskova neither. I would say she is not as much of a favorite as for RG, but she is still the favorite.
Just not over the field.

Without seeing Iga play a warmup, I think I'd take the field over her but just by a couple percentage points. BTW, Kerber has had a pretty strong few months. I like her chances for a run.

I think we overestimate Iga on grass, particularly straight after winning RG and with no grass practice. My estimation is that she goes down R16 or QF.

I would rate Swiatek the favorite but with less than a 50 percent chance to win it.

The women's field is so weak at the top right now that I cannot name anyone other than Swiatek I expect to reach the quarters even. Kerber played very well last year and might have won without Barty around, but she's a year older now. Sabalenka was playing well enough to win it until she suddenly wasn't in the last two sets against Pliskova, but though she appears to have gotten over her double faults plague, she is still shaky. Muguruza definitely is capable because of her power but can lose to anybody in any round. Halep has been consistently good at Wimbledon for several years except for the year she had just won Roland Garros, but it's hard to gauge her confidence level at the moment. Jabeur has the shots and movement but is too inconsistent.

There's no one else in the top 20 I take seriously at all. If Swiatek gets upset, which is a definite possibility, there are probably about 20 players who could win it.

History says wimbledon has never been won by some random player..only Bartoli is an exception..so either someone who is already a major champion or someone who will win multiple majors...

ashkor87 wrote:History says wimbledon has never been won by some random player..only Bartoli is an exception..so either someone who is already a major champion or someone who will win multiple majors...

Bartoli actually made the final in 2007 before winning in 2013. It was the Pierce Brosnan year. So she wasn’t super random.

There have been some random/surprise finalists who lost to a Williams or a future multi-Slam winner like Kvitova. Without a towering giant in the draw to stop a random finalist at the final, maybe this year will defy the odds.


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meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:36 pm

ashkor87 wrote:History says wimbledon has never been won by some random player..only Bartoli is an exception..so either someone who is already a major champion or someone who will win multiple majors...

Bartoli actually made the final in 2007 before winning in 2013. It was the Pierce Brosnan year. So she wasn’t super random.

There have been some random/surprise finalists who lost to a Williams or a future multi-Slam winner like Kvitova. Without a towering giant in the draw to stop a random finalist at the final, maybe this year will defy the odds.


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Finalists yes but not champions, I think

It's not a rule, though. This year could be an exception.

jazzyg wrote: ↑Sun Jun 12, 2022 6:52 am I would rate Swiatek the favorite but with less than a 50 percent chance to win it.

...

There's no one else in the top 20 I take seriously at all. If Swiatek gets upset, which is a definite possibility, there are probably about 20 players who could win it.

Indeed.
I will take her as the best bet, but just at around 25%. The thing is that with Barty gone, I would not give anybody else anything more than 5%. And those would be Halep, Kerber and Mugu, just because they are past champions.{
I say, most likely: OTHER. My favorite player of late.