Talk About Tennis 2.0

not nfl news but travis hunter best CB in decades choses deion sanders jackson u over georgia and florida state. crazy to watch his highlights as a 2 way player. wierd OSU and Bama werent involved.

So, will the Jags be the one smart team now that will hire Bienemy?
I don't think so, as Khan probably will hire another one of his pals, but Bienemy would be one of the top choices for a real football organization.

Don't see Eric being the Jags hire. Doug Pederson is a name I'm seeing already, and he mostly sat out last season for an opportunity this year according to previous reports. Jim Caldwell seems very likely to emerge as a candidate, polar opposite reputation from Urban and a great history with QBs. Not clear on if Josh McDaniels has a deal with the Patriots to be the next head coach once Bill retires, but if not, then him for sure.

My guess? Don't be surprised if former Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich emerges as a top candidate.

Don't let Tampa fans read that about Leftwich?

A really entertaining game last night, and the Chargers' head coach already said that he would go for all those non-converted 4-down again. Because the analytics say so.
Now, I know I am not hired by the NFL or NBA or MLB to run their stats, but they miss one point over and over: the analytics tell you to go for fourth down, but they do not take into consideration the Bayesian part of the numbers: sure, going for 4th down means you will make it on some percentage of times, but the question is bigger: HOW MANY teams that went for fourth down once in a game decided by one score or less WON the game? That went for it TWICE? That went for it ONCE MORE than the other team?
It is not just what percentage of times you made the fourth down, it is how many times that made you win/lose the game.

If that is what is happening to the teams, time to do some research in what is happening as a consequence of playing in packed stadia. Some of those games must be super spreaders.

For the second time in the season, Harbaugh goes for two instead of tying the game with a FG, in the last play of the game.
I don't care what the analytics say. The reality is that they are now out of the playoffs.
I know, it was the Packers and you don't want to give the ball to A. Rodgers in overtime, but at least that is a 50% proposal. The stats for 4& goal at the 2 can be much better (if they are).

And if they get those two yards twice they are tied for first in the AFC. And no one would be mentioning analytics being the reason they won… it’s only brought up when teams lose as a result.

I say it is brought up when coaches go for fourth and short with the game on the line. The Bears yesterday were at the opposite end of that problem. They were down by 14 with very little time left, so going for it on 4th made sense. The game was already almost lost, so nobody is questioning Nagy on those decisions (he is being questioned on other calls, for sure).
I know this is confirmation bias at its best, but I can recall, just for this year, three situations in which teams went for 4 and short, or a 2pt conversion, instead of tying the game: two by the Ravens, one by the Bills. Both teams are hovering around the seventh spot for the play offs. I can't recall how many times teams have gone for 2 instead of tying, or kicked the FG to tie and won in OT.

Exactly - that proves my point. When people go with the analytics and it works out, no one brings it up or says that is why they won. It is only used as an excuse when it backfires... never praised when it works.

Part of the reason is, usually when it doesn't work out it clearly causes the loss - like Baltimore going for two. If they had made the two point conversion, it's hard to say the "analytical" choice was right - we can never know what would have been result if they just kicked the point and tied it. We don't know if Green Bay marches down field in 40 seconds and wins it with a field goal - or who wins the coin toss in overtime. Unfortunately it's only real clear when it winds up costing you

My point being: it is NOT working. I can give three examples of 4th and game not working. It is too much of a risk.
Yes, we do not know if Green Bay would have marched down the field in 40 seconds and kick a FG to win the game, because they did not need to do so. They took a knee and won, because the Ravens did not force them to do anything else.
I can't recall which game this week was lost by the team that went for it three times within field go range, and did not convert any time. Had they kicked the FG's, that's 9 points there. And they lost by 7, meaning it also was not worth it.
I find it too risky, specially in a league with 17 games. Every game counts for way too much.
Serious here: have there been any games this season in which a team went for it on 4th and game, and the team made it? I can't think of one.