Talk About Tennis 2.0

What did Sabalenka and Rybakina do to find themselves on the same footing as the great Leylah Fernandez? They must be very proud. Well, it gives something for Coco to aspire to

FredX wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 3:09 pm What did Sabalenka and Rybakina do to find themselves on the same footing as the great Leylah Fernandez? They must be very proud. Well, it gives something for Coco to aspire to

Nice sarcasm but what probabilities would you assign them?

I don't think that it is assigning Aryna and Elena a different probability. I believe it is that you have Leylah too high.
Sure, she is playing well this week and her best result ever has certainly been at the USO. But at 15%, it seems high.
I would still give Osaka a better chance. Naomi has power and size; right now, she is having problems but those pale in comparison with Leylah's performance since her RU finish.
Leylah belongs in the field. And raise the field to 2%, then.

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 3:23 pm

FredX wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 3:09 pm What did Sabalenka and Rybakina do to find themselves on the same footing as the great Leylah Fernandez? They must be very proud. Well, it gives something for Coco to aspire to

Nice sarcasm but what probabilities would you assign them?

You must admit, your Fernandez ranking here is bold statement. I wouldn't know how to assign probabilities, particularly given that there's been only one repeat champion in a decade, and half of those champions were ranked outside the top 10, but sure, why not, I'll go with:

Swiatek 20%
Sabalenka 10%
Rybakina 5%
Gauff 5%
Field 60%

Well, making bold predictions and discussing them, is what this forum is for, isn't it?! Not all it is for..but a good, fun way to talkabouttennis?
And saying 'field' will win is a cop-out..you may as well say 'no opinion'?

And now I say: No, the field at 60% is too high. This is the USO; this is not Wimby, with a weird surface on which most players don't really know how to play, or RG, on a surface on which EVERYBODY and her cat knows how to play. Or not even the Aussie, very early in the year and with players still coming into form.
Sure, I said that the USO is very wide open, but there is a limit. When Osaka and Andreescu won, they were part of the field but as Ashkor said, they were having good seasons (which turned into great when they won).
I say the spectrum of winners at the USO is the most reduced. Can I see a Paula Badosa breaking through? Sure, she is playing well and has had good success on hards. Can I see a Camila Osorio? No, too much for those players.

Sure, I will cop to 60% field as being a cop out. (So what is the cut off for "field" anyways)? The Olympics is probably a factor, but it doesn't seem like any one person is particularly surging above the others lately. I would say everyone know how to play hardcourt to higher degree than clay, but I'm not sure if that makes predictions easier or harder. Coco is a great hardcourt player and thrives at the U.S. Open, but she's struggling a little lately and defending a title is difficult task if you're not named Serena. Sabalenka and Swiatek are strong on hard courts, but not dominantly so. Osaka and Andreescu could come in and spoil things or lose in the first round. Pegula, Collins, Madison Keys could create some noise... Svitolina, Kasatkina, Andreeva, Ostapenko...I don't know...seems VERY open to me this year. I don't see a clear handful of favorites.

I would say that the field is something like any player below the top 16 seeds. And you have to add some players like Osaka, Andreescu and Raducanu, that have won it before.
But it is very vague, I agree.

I give Fernandez, Raducanu, Andreeva, and Osaka a 0% chance of winning the USOpen

After today's match vs Iga, I will not give Andreeva 0%. She is a dark horse.

ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 9:33 pm

Wow!
Nike really brainstormed this one, didn't they?

Fair enough, although Swiatek isn’t playing her best tennis right now. It’s been a couple of months since I’ve seen Mirra play, but her shot selection was still woefully lacking then, so winning 7 matches seems unlikely to me.

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 10:11 pm

ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 9:33 pm

Wow!
Nike really brainstormed this one, didn't they?

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 10:11 pm Wow!
Nike really brainstormed this one, didn't they?

I'm sure they spent many hours determining the colour of the swoosh.