Talk About Tennis 2.0

A friend of another member of the Danceswithbourbon partnership was at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday and snapped this photo at the finish line of her race. Oops, I made it TOO small when I resized it. Oh well. You get the drift.

Great shot. I assume that DWB is #3?

ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 24, 2021 5:29 pm Great shot. I assume that DWB is #3?

Yes. This photo was taken a few feet after the finish line. The official chart of the race has Danceswithbourbon winning by a head. But I think it was closer than that. More like a nose.

Our problem now is figuring out what to do next. The last thing you want to do in a situation like this (win in a debut at a fairly low level) is to put them in a position where they are likely NOT to succeed. But you also should be able to expect some improvement, too. And of course, you want larger purse money. All of the races at Keeneland and Churchill in April where she fits are $81K-$109 allowance races. Those are just too tough for where she is in her development. We're looking at a $34K Allowance Optional Claiming race at Indiana Grand (she would not be up for claim) on April 26 at 8 furlongs (1 mile) on dirt. It's a slight step up in level and probably a logical spot to take on other winners for the first time.

This is the part of this business I never grasped before. I still have a lot to learn, but I'm getting there... I only need another 30-40 years to figure it all out.

The Florida Derby, a key prep race for the KY Derby, is today. Post time is 6:40 p.m. EST. Greatest Honour is the morning line favorite at 6/5. At the end, he'll be charging from the back of the field. But I'll be rooting for Collaborate--he's trained by Saffie Joseph. The bad news is he's a speed horse stretching out to 1 1/8 miles. That's typically not a great combination.

If memory serves, many Florida Derby winners wind up being the favorites for the Kentucky Derby and in turn, they aren't my personal favorites. Those 5/4 odds horses at the Derby always feel like they'll be a bust, way too much money on them to seem like it'll pan out. And if I've never heard of the jockey, I like their odds even less.

JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:12 pm If memory serves, many Florida Derby winners wind up being the favorites for the Kentucky Derby and in turn, they aren't my personal favorites. Those 5/4 odds horses at the Derby always feel like they'll be a bust, way too much money on them to seem like it'll pan out. And if I've never heard of the jockey, I like their odds even less.

No problems with jockey name recognition on the top 4 contenders in the Florida Derby. Though none of those four jockeys have ever won a Kentucky Derby. Yet.


Greatest Honor: Jose Ortiz
Collaborate: Tyler Gaffalione
Known Agenda: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Spielberg: Javier Castellano

We'll see if the landscape changes today, but I don't think either of these four horses are Derby-caliber horses compared to Concert Tour and Essential Quality.

Here's the result of the Florida Derby. Known Agenda avenged his recent losses to Greatest Honour, who finished fourth. Todd Pletcher will have a horse in the Derby.

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:55 pm

JazzNU wrote: ↑Sat Mar 27, 2021 7:12 pm If memory serves, many Florida Derby winners wind up being the favorites for the Kentucky Derby and in turn, they aren't my personal favorites. Those 5/4 odds horses at the Derby always feel like they'll be a bust, way too much money on them to seem like it'll pan out. And if I've never heard of the jockey, I like their odds even less.

No problems with jockey name recognition on the top 4 contenders in the Florida Derby. Though none of those four jockeys have ever won a Kentucky Derby. Yet.


Greatest Honour: Jose Ortiz
Collaborate: Tyler Gaffalione
Known Agenda: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Spielberg: Javier Castellano

We'll see if the landscape changes today, but I don't think either of these four horses are Derby-caliber horses compared to Concert Tour and Essential Quality.

So, I have to backtrack on my most recent statement. Going into Saturday's Florida Derby, Essential Quality and Concert Tour had posted the best Equibase speed figures (105) at any of the Triple Crown race distances. That's no longer the case.

Known Agenda put up a 112 in his win yesterday, with second place finisher, Soup and Sandwich, posting a 108. The morning line and post-time favorite, Greatest Honour, put up a 103. Of course, speed figures aren't everything. But they are certainly part of the puzzle.

And of course, any one of these contenders, or someone else floating about out there, could dramatically improve or regress at any given moment.

The Kentucky Derby prep races are winding down. Three are occurring today--with 100 Derby points on the line for the winner (40 for second place). 50 Derby points basically means you're in.

Anyway, here's today's Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. We had a MASSIVE upset at 72-1.

Here's the 2021 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Essential Quality did not need the Derby points; he was already in. Essential Quality only needed a race. But I can't help but wonder if this difficult win a month before the Derby took a lot out of him.

On the other hand, he just keeps finding a way to win.

And here's the last one for today--the Santa Anita Derby. Of course, all the focus was on the two Baffert horses. But Rock Your World (Hi, Wanda, from In Living Color) had other ideas.

Rock Your World came into the race undefeated. But both of his wins were on turf. Everything about the pedigree suggested it should work well enough. But this well?

FUN FACT: If the connections decide to stick with Umberto Rispoli as the jockey for the Derby, and I hope they do, Umberto will get to run in his first Kentucky Derby 4 Saturdays from now.

Preliminary Equibase Speed Figures for today's Derby prep winners and runners up--all races at 1 1/8 miles. I'm throwing in Rombauer--just for scale and because I THINK he has enough points for the Derby field even though he was a distant third behind Essential Quality and Highly Motivated:

1) Essential Quality--109 (Blue Grass winner)
2) Highly Motivated--108 (Blue Grass runner-up)
3) Rock Your World--103 (Santa Anita Derby winner)
4) Bourbonic--100 (Wood Memorial winner)
4) Rombauer--100 (Blue Grass 3rd place)
6) Dynamic One--100 (Wood Memorial runner-up)
7) Medina Spirit--96 (Santa Anita Derby runner-up)

dryrunguy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:55 pm The Kentucky Derby prep races are winding down. Three are occurring today--with 100 Derby points on the line for the winner (40 for second place). 50 Derby points basically means you're in.

Anyway, here's today's Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. We had a MASSIVE upset at 72-1.

Holy Crap!!!

There are a few other backstories to the Bourbonic race, Jazz. Let's see if I can remember them all.

First, assuming the connections stick with Kendrick Carmouche to ride Bourbonic in the Derby, that will make Carmouche the first Black jockey to ever ride in the Derby.

Second, Carmouche was originally slated to ride another contender in the Wood Memorial, Brooklyn Strong. But instead, he opted to ride Nicky the Vest (a son of Run Happy) in the Wood. But then Nicky the Vest suffered a minor bone chip injury that pulled him off the Derby trail. So, Carmouche, the top rider at Aqueduct had NO mount for the Wood. The connections associated with Bourbonic approached his agent and asked if Carmouche would take the mount, and of course he did because you can't get a cut of the purse if you don't ride anything. So that was the twisted path behind how Carmouche ended up on the long-shot Bourbonic.

And Carmouche's cut for the win was at least $40K--probably more.

It was just an amazing ride. I didn't read your post closely before I watching to know who was going to win it, just knew you said there was an upset. And if it had been I think the horse's name was Crowded Trade? He made a move late between horses that had him gaining quickly on the front two and that would've been a seriously impressive come from behind win, seemed like he was going to pull it off, but then Bourbonic came out of nowhere and just passed everyone. Truly a legendary run. If we get anything close to that at any of the Triple Crown races this year, I'll be thrilled.