by ashkor87 we need a board now for this... who is likely to make it? with Zverev not likely, that makes Hurkacz #8.. with not many big tournaments left, I think only Fritz and Norrie have a shot of making it.. Berrettini and Sinner are a further 100 points behind.. they need about 500 points .. sounds difficult..
by ponchi101 Ashkor. I took the liberty to expand the title a bit.
Zverev won't go; he needs a bit more time to heal. A good showing by any of the 9-15 ranked players at Paris can clinch a spot. Plus, Novak has that Wimbledon title and we are still not sure if the ATP will honor the "Slam champion" rule.
So there are a few players that can make it. And Rafa's participation is not guaranteed; it will depend on his child arriving.
by ti-amie Ashkor you were right on time!
by ashkor87 Yes, I had forgotten Rafa may not go .he has never been fond of this event, has he? Turin court is very quick, at least it was when I last watched Sinner win the NextGen on it...I doubt Nadal cares much about that, he is a great champion, but it sure won't suit him much..
by ashkor87 It is also a fact that Nadal has a really poor, atrocious, no good record at the WTF ..some of the reasons cited are libelous so I won't repeat them,!
by ashkor87
ti-amie wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:39 pm
Ashkor you were right on time!
We need a board on WTA YEC at FW sooner than Turin, actually...
by ponchi101 Well, it is not that Rafa's record at WTF is atrocious; he has made the finals at least 4 times, semis a whole lot too.
It is just that he has not won it. The sole thing missing in his resume.
by meganfernandez
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:44 pm
Ashkor. I took the liberty to expand the title a bit.
Zverev won't go; he needs a bit more time to heal. A good showing by any of the 9-15 ranked players at Paris can clinch a spot. Plus, Novak has that Wimbledon title and we are still not sure if the ATP will honor the "Slam champion" rule.
So there are a few players that can make it. And Rafa's participation is not guaranteed; it will depend on his child arriving.
No chance Rafa goes.
by ashkor87
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:54 pm
Well, it is not that Rafa's record at WTF is atrocious; he has made the finals at least 4 times, semis a whole lot too.
It is just that he has not won it. The sole thing missing in his resume.
By his standards, I mean, not by normal ones...
by ponchi101 I think Agassi can rest assured that he will be the sole player to win at least one of everything (Slams, MS1000/Super 9's, WTF, Olympic Gold).
by ashkor87
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:27 am
I think Agassi can rest assured that he will be the sole player to win at least one of everything (Slams, MS1000/Super 9's, WTF, Olympic Gold).
Other than Serena ?
by ponchi101 Talking the men, sure. In the women's you have Serena and Steffi, who both won everything at least once.
Martina and Chris also won everything available; no Olympics because tennis was not an event at the time. I think BJK did it too, as well as Court.
by ti-amie
by ashkor87 Djokovic needs about 700 points, to catch Hurkacz...with Paris still to go, it is certainly doable...
by ponchi101 Plus 250 from Tel-Aviv, yes.
by ashkor87 With Nadal probably not playing, the straggler is Fritz...Djokovic only needs 200 points net to catch him ..with Astana a 500 series and Paris, a 1000 pointer , I would guess Djokovic is safe now....
by ponchi101 Plus he will want to make a point about that 7th ranking of his. Which is not real.
by ponchi101 BTW. The ATP main page says about Djokovic: "As a 2022 Slam champ, qualifies if in Top 20". They mean for Turin.
I guess that settles it.
by ti-amie
by meganfernandez So weird that Medvedev is a question mark at this point. What a weird year for him.
by ponchi101 Indeed. It was weird specially since he won the USO and made the Aussie finals, and I was expecting him to become a solid #1.
That operation and something else derailed him. (And I have no idea what the something else was).
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:44 pm
Ashkor. I took the liberty to expand the title a bit.
Zverev won't go; he needs a bit more time to heal. A good showing by any of the 9-15 ranked players at Paris can clinch a spot. Plus, Novak has that Wimbledon title and we are still not sure if the ATP will honor the "Slam champion" rule.
So there are a few players that can make it. And Rafa's participation is not guaranteed; it will depend on his child arriving.
No chance Rafa goes.
Welp, reportedly he's going.
by ponchi101 Like I said, all the time!
I am surprised. With the recent child, the slew of injuries, and the etc, I really thought he would not.
It simply shows that these three guys' competitive drives are off the scale. It is the sole major tournament Rafa has not won, so he will try again.
by ashkor87 Nadal has never done well at the WTF and the court will be too fast too..don't expect him to be a force...the previous venue, London, was excruciatingly slow..and he didn't do well even there..
by ponchi101
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 12:34 pm
Nadal has never done well at the WTF and the court will be too fast too..don't expect him to be a force...the previous venue, London, was excruciatingly slow..and he didn't do well even there..
I know you mean "by his standards", but he has reached the final two times and the semis 4 times. His losses were to Roger and Nole, not unexpected.
But I don't see him doing anything here this year. He has been off the court for too long. Paris will let us know how he is doing.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 26, 2022 12:34 pm
Nadal has never done well at the WTF and the court will be too fast too..don't expect him to be a force...the previous venue, London, was excruciatingly slow..and he didn't do well even there..
I know you mean "by his standards", but he has reached the final two times and the semis 4 times. His losses were to Roger and Nole, not unexpected.
But I don't see him doing anything here this year. He has been off the court for too long. Paris will let us know how he is doing.
Yes, of course, by his incredibly high standards...
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ptmcmahon I just spent the last couple of minutes staring at last two posts trying to figure out why if "the field was set", we then had a post on how the last two spots are determined
by meganfernandez
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 2:44 am
I just spent the last couple of minutes staring at last two posts trying to figure out why if "the field was set", we then had a post on how the last two spots are determined
Are these spots for alternates?
by ptmcmahon The "field is set" post was just for this week's Paris event
by Deuce
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 1:43 pm
The "field is set" post was just for this week's Paris event
Yes... wow.
I read it the same way as you, thinking it was referring to Turin - because the 'tweet' certainly framed it that way by stating that "the field is set", and showing only 8 players.
It wouldn't surprise me if they did it deliberately to see how many people they could mislead.
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ponchi101 If Novak wins tomorrow, and he will, he ends the week ranked 8th or higher. There will be little controversy.
by ponchi101 Alcaraz announced he is withdrawing. That injury, as I suspected, was more than just a little twitch. He pulled up from that match in a very quick fashion, as if something had really hurt.
by Suliso How unfortunate... Fritz is in then, Hurkacz or Rune as the first alternate.
Also Nadal with an outside chance of ending the season as #1. He needs to make up 1,000 points.
by ti-amie
by ti-amieUPDATED Leader board
2 ESP Rafael Nadal
Still has a chance for year-end No. 1
5820
3 GRE Stefanos Tsitsipas
Will move to 2nd in Race with Paris title
5350
4 NOR Casper Ruud
Falls to Musetti in R3
5020
5 RUS Daniil Medvedev
Upset by De Minaur in opener
4065
6 CAN Felix Auger-Aliassime
16-match win streak snapped by Rune in Paris SFs
3995
7 RUS Andrey Rublev
Falls to Rune in R3
3530
8 SRB Novak Djokovic
Qualified as 2022 Grand Slam champion
3080
9 USA Taylor Fritz
Turin hopes end with R2 loss to Simon
2955
1 ESP
Carlos Alcaraz
Withdraws from Turin with muscle tear
6820
by ti-amieThere's a really nice pic on the Turin Finals web site but I can't get it as a .jpg
AND I figured it out.
It shows the updated field.
by meganfernandez
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Nov 05, 2022 5:59 pmThere's a really nice pic on the Turin Finals web site but I can't get it as a .jpg
AND I figured it out.
It shows the updated field.
I like this so much better than every guy screaming and fist-pumping after winning a big point. At least this has some personality.
by ponchi101 But at least two of those pictures can be captioned: "How did I get here?"
by ti-amie
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 05, 2022 7:15 pm
But at least two of those pictures can be captioned: "How did I get here?"
It's pretty simple, isn't it? Wimbledon still counts as a Major - and winners of Majors (if they're in the top 20?) automatically qualify for the ATP Finals.
Whether that is the RIGHT way to do it or not can be questioned and discussed - but it seems pretty straightforward to me.
What bothers me is that the WTA doesn't do it the same way - thus Rybakina isn't playing in Texas this week. But I guess Rybakina isn't in the top 20 (but likely would be if her Wimbledon points counted). I'd prefer to see some consistency between the ATP and WTA on significant matters like this.
Any way you look at it, and whatever your opinion is on how it should be done... one thing is certain: Wimbledon screwed everything up by banning Russians and Belarusians.
by ashkor87 Hard to see why Djokovic will not win this..court is quick, he is fresh, Nadal is not ready...etc...
by ponchi101 You posted a similar post in the RANKINGS topic, and I answered there.
So, copy paste here :
I will bet you two dog-chewed balls Novak won't win
Paris is a court that favors him a lot, and yet he could not win. To me, the problem now for Rafa and Novak is the recovery time; if they have one tough match, specially a late one, they don't have the time to come back. It is the reason they are still so dominant at Slams (with the days-off schedule) but have come down to earth, slightly, on the regular tour.
Having said that:
Rafa: won't win. Not his place.
Tsitsipas: As good a chance as anybody else.
Ruud. Not his favorite surface.
Medvedev: Good chances. He likes indoor fast.
FAA: very good chances. He LOVES indoor fast.
Rublev: The one guy that should withdraw so that Rune can get in. Zero chance.
Novak: Contradicting myself here. Betting against him seldom pays off.
Fritz: good fast court player, has some very good strokes, then he fizzles. Or Fritzzles?
Rune: He would not win it; but he would not go 0-3.
by meganfernandez
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:59 pm
Fritz: good fast court player, has some very good strokes, then he fizzles. Or Fritzzles?
He should have a protein snack mix called Fritzzles.
by JazzNU
by JazzNU
by ponchi101 Pretty unimaginative names for the groups. No legends to honor?
Odd.
Green group: Felix and Taylor.
Red group: Novak and Daniil.
by JazzNU Agreed, not very imaginative. I'm going to guess the Red and Green are because of the Italian flag. I think they had the same names last year. In London they had different names that did honor players I believe (not that I remember any of them). Maybe it's part of the contract in Turin?
by ponchi101 Ah, makes sense, indeed. Red and Green.
Still, the Panatta/Barasutti groups would have been more to my liking. But since they don't call...
by 3mlm How come Felix gets two voting spots but Fritz gets none?
by skatingfan
3mlm wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:13 pm
How come Felix gets two voting spots but Fritz gets none?
3mlm wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 7:13 pm
How come Felix gets two voting spots but Fritz gets none?
STOP THE STEAL
by ti-amie Taking Jazz advice I was just messing around on Reddit and someone in their tennis community noted that all of the Orthodox Christians are in the same (Red) group. That is something that would never have occurred to me.
by ti-amie
by JazzNU
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:59 pm
FAA: very good chances. He LOVES indoor fast.
Fritz: good fast court player, has some very good strokes, then he fizzles. Or Fritzzles?
I didn't understand the posts above at first.
When you get a chance, please edit the poll for this thread. Switch the first listed FAA (no votes yet) to Fritz. FAA is currently listed twice in the poll and Fritz is missing.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:59 pm
FAA: very good chances. He LOVES indoor fast.
Fritz: good fast court player, has some very good strokes, then he fizzles. Or Fritzzles?
I didn't understand the posts above at first.
When you get a chance, please edit the poll for this thread. Switch the first listed FAA (no votes yet) to Fritz. FAA is currently listed twice in the poll and Fritz is missing.
Done.
I do have an excuse, but.... nah, I don't.
by ti-amie Don't sweat it. Ish happens.
by ashkor87 Am glad to see people (here and in the media) including court speed as a factor..a couple years ago, that wasn't the case!
Turin is very quick, from what little I have seen of it, in the NextGen, Tsitsipas has virtually no chance, I would say..he did win event once but on a painfully slow court at London..
by ti-amie The question was asked and answered here but others had the same question.
by ti-amie
by Deuce I really don't like Felix posing for the photo with his finger to his mouth in the 'Shhhhh" manner. He has done that after winning a couple of tournaments recently, as well. It's quite arrogant and reflects poorly on him, as he is probably the most genuinely nice, sincerely humble, and most down to Earth player in the top 20.
by skatingfan
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:07 pm
Because, and I have told you before, this forum is in the wrong hands. But you people refuse to believe me
by ashkor87 Time to project probabilities..
Djokovic 50%
Medvedev 25
FAA 15
Ruud 10
Rest 0
by ptmcmahon 0% for other four combined? I'll have to remember if one of them wins that.
by ponchi101 Medvedev over Felix? Felix comes from a 3 tournament streak, and a loss to the eventual champion in Paris. Medvedev has done very little, throughout the year.
At a minimum, I would flip those two.
by ashkor87
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:56 pm
0% for other four combined? I'll have to remember if one of them wins that.
Yes, do remember in any case!
by ashkor87
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:04 pm
Medvedev over Felix? Felix comes from a 3 tournament streak, and a loss to the eventual champion in Paris. Medvedev has done very little, throughout the year.
At a minimum, I would flip those two.
Yes, you could be right about that...Class will prevail over form, though, and I think Medvedev has a bit more of that..but FAA has class too. As for the rest- Fritz does not belong here, he will probably finish last, Nadal is not really ready, Rublev is simply not that good..Tsitsi will find the court too quick...
by meganfernandez
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:04 pm
Medvedev over Felix? Felix comes from a 3 tournament streak, and a loss to the eventual champion in Paris. Medvedev has done very little, throughout the year.
At a minimum, I would flip those two.
Because Medvedev is a big-match player... I'm thinking he'll want to salvage his year. That's why I went with him. And because no one is a heavy favorite. I probably should have gone with Djokovic.
A teaching pro (recent college player) pointed out to me that Djokovic was the one tiring in rallies toward the end. Rune outlasted him, which is what Djokovic normally does. He said Rune was just going BH to BH with Djokovic and playing the attrition game, and he won it. That makes me wonder about Djokovic's fitness or match toughness. I know, he still came within a few points of winning Paris, so it's not like he's in dreadful form. But the difference in the top players is in those margins. So I'm very curious to see how Djokovic does. He should be the favorite, but I wonder if he's in tip-top shape, and, if he's not, if it will affect his confidence just enough to let the other guys in.
by ponchi101 As I tell you. They need more time to recover.
Novak had a tough three setter on Saturday, and indeed Rune kept up with him. He stretched some points, kept Novak running a little bit.
Another thing about all sports is that, hey, you DO grow old and some finer details start to go away. Part of Roger's decline was that, at his height, his timing was impeccable (in his strokes). And then, he lost a tiny little bit of that, and it started making a bit of a difference. Novak may be getting there too because he is another player that relies a lot on that impeccable timing. After a couple of hours of hitting that ball at 100MPH constantly, that tiny percentage of missed timing comes into play.
For Rafa too. Notice that both of them lost their matches after winning the 1st set. 10 years ago, that was unimaginable (unless playing against a fellow Big 3).
Time starts to catch up with you.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 3:04 pm
Medvedev over Felix? Felix comes from a 3 tournament streak, and a loss to the eventual champion in Paris. Medvedev has done very little, throughout the year.
At a minimum, I would flip those two.
Because Medvedev is a big-match player... I'm thinking he'll want to salvage his year. That's why I went with him. And because no one is a heavy favorite. I probably should have gone with Djokovic.
A teaching pro (recent college player) pointed out to me that Djokovic was the one tiring in rallies toward the end. Rune outlasted him, which is what Djokovic normally does. He said Rune was just going BH to BH with Djokovic and playing the attrition game, and he won it. That makes me wonder about Djokovic's fitness or match toughness. I know, he still came within a few points of winning Paris, so it's not like he's in dreadful form. But the difference in the top players is in those margins. So I'm very curious to see how Djokovic does. He should be the favorite, but I wonder if he's in tip-top shape, and, if he's not, if it will affect his confidence just enough to let the other guys in.
^ A-HA! Now we know why Novak's people were hiding the drink mix - they were obviously secretly sabotaging their player!
His people are seen hiding from the cameras when mixing Novak's drink... and then, for the first time in a decade, Novak runs out of gas in a match? And runs out of gas vs. some new kid?
NO WAY that this was a co-incidence!!
Come on - it's as blatant as can be!
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:56 pm
0% for other four combined? I'll have to remember if one of them wins that.
Yes, do remember in any case!
Hehe ... I always find it strange to see someone give someone an exact 0% chance of winning. I'd at least say 1% or 2%, I think it's pretty hard to say it's 100% impossible for half the field to win
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:56 pm
0% for other four combined? I'll have to remember if one of them wins that.
Yes, do remember in any case!
Hehe ... I always find it strange to see someone give someone an exact 0% chance of winning. I'd at least say 1% or 2%, I think it's pretty hard to say it's 100% impossible for half the field to win
For all practical purposes, 2% is 0% ,isn't it? It is just a way of expressing, no exact science is involved!
by ti-amie
by skatingfan That's a very interesting boy band.
by ti-amie
skatingfan wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:07 pm
That's a very interesting boy band.
The BTS of tennis?
by Deuce I would name the boy band 'Novak and the Vaccinated'.
by ponchi101
skatingfan wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:07 pm
That's a very interesting boy band.
Post of the month.
---o---
Rafaello & Di Carbonaras
(They are in Italy, after all).
skatingfan wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:07 pm
That's a very interesting boy band.
Post of the month.
---o---
Rafaello & Di Carbonaras
(They are in Italy, after all).
Debut album: Lovers and Losers
Sample lyric: I'm a singles man and you're a singles girl / I'm up for doubles too if you wanna rock my world (ooh yeah)
by meganfernandez What is this surface? Linoleum?
by ti-amie Sigh. My boy has no chance on that surface.
Hehe ... I always find it strange to see someone give someone an exact 0% chance of winning. I'd at least say 1% or 2%, I think it's pretty hard to say it's 100% impossible for half the field to win
For all practical purposes, 2% is 0% ,isn't it? It is just a way of expressing, no exact science is involved!
Not for me. Saying 0% means it is absolutely... 100% impossible... that any of the four of them win. It's not equal to 2%.
by ashkor87 The purpose of probabilities is to convey how much chance I think someone has..obviously there is no exactness about a purely subjective estimate..so 2% is the same, to me, as 0%
by ptmcmahon If you're saying 12% is the same as 10% sure, there's not much difference there.
But 0 % means absolutely, no possible chance at all. Just like you can't say you're 100% sure something will happen, then later say "Well 100% is the same as 98%."
If your 0% means 2% then... I'm not going to worry about it one of the four wins.
by Suliso So who of these guys would prefer the fastest possible indoor court? I think we can rule out Nadal and Ruud. Perhaps FAA would particularly like it? I'm not sure...
by ashkor87
Suliso wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:41 pm
So who of these guys would prefer the fastest possible indoor court? I think we can rule out Nadal and Ruud. Perhaps FAA would particularly like it? I'm not sure...
I think FAA...
by ponchi101 FAA and Fritz.
Rafa and Ruud, as you say, would have it.
Medvedev, with his "I'm in the parking lot" return of serve, would have no chance.
Rublev, with his extreme FH, would shank 1 out of 2.
Novak would be so frustrated, unable to track down that second shot.
Fritz would love the short points. FAA too.
by ponchi101
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 4:46 am
If you're saying 12% is the same as 10% sure, there's not much difference there.
But 0 % means absolutely, no possible chance at all. Just like you can't say you're 100% sure something will happen, then later say "Well 100% is the same as 98%."
If your 0% means 2% then... I'm not going to worry about it one of the four wins.
Zero. Perhaps the most potent mathematical number of them all. Together with infinity (which is not a "number", is a concept).
Are you familiar with the Sidemen? They do YouTube videos like this.
by ponchi101 So much for Ruud having no chances.
Very well played match by both (still ongoing). Obviously, the difference has been minimal, but it seems neither is uncomfortable on the surface.
by ponchi101 Ruud closes the deal. Only one break of serve.
Minimal difference, again. And the break point was a DF, so this could have still be going on.
Ruud continues to surprise me. He has obviously worked hard on improving on surfaces other than clay, but a USO Final, and now this win, shows how much he has improved on the surface.
by ti-amie
by ti-amieMonday, November 14, 2022 Day 2
Centre Court Starts At 11:30 Am
RR
(1) Wesley Koolhof/Neal Skupski VS (8) Thanasi KokkinakisNick Kyrgios
Not Before 2:00 Pm
RR
(4) Daniil Medvedev VS (6) Andrey Rublev
Not Before 6:30 Pm
RR
(4) Nikola Mektic/Mate Pavic VS (5) Ivan Dodig/Austin Krajicek
Not Before 9:00 Pm
RR
(2) Stefanos Tsitsipas VS (7) Novak Djokovic
by ti-amie I apologize for missing the Day 1 OoP. Here it is with results so far included.
Sunday, November 13, 2022 Day 1
Centre Court Starts At 11:30 Am
RR
(6) Lloyd Glasspool/Harri Heliovaara Defeats (3) Marcelo Arevalo/Jean-Julien Rojer 75 76(3)
Not Before 2:00 Pm
RR
(3) Casper Ruud Defeats (5) Felix Auger-Aliassime 76(4) 64
Not Before 6:30 Pm
RR
(2) Rajeev Ram/Joe Salisbury Defeats (7) Marcel Granollers/Horacio Zeballos
63 67(8) 10-8
Not Before 9:00 Pm
RR
(1) Rafael Nadal VS (8) Taylor Fritz
by ponchi101 Rafa has changed his return position, once again for his career. He is standing about 1 meter behind the base line, which for him is a radical change.
I really can't think of a man that has tinkered with his service motion AND is return position, more in his career. It is truly incredible.
by ashkor87 I don't know..saw highlights of FAA vs Ruud - court doesn't seem all that quick..medium at best..maybe it is the balls...
by Suliso
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 8:49 pm
Rafa has changed his return position, once again for his career. He is standing about 1 meter behind the base line, which for him is a radical change.
I really can't think of a man that has tinkered with his service motion AND is return position, more in his career. It is truly incredible.
It clearly didn't help this time. He had no break points against Fritz's serve.
by ponchi101 The commentators in the match here, two of them former Argie players, were saying that Moya and him are trying to make the points shorter, and perhaps he is being more aggressive on the return.
But as you say, yesterday was not an impressive display of returns. He needs to work more on it, if that is the plan.
by ponchi101 And...
So much for Rublev having no chance of winning.
Don't take it personally, Ashkor, but nobody here has 0%. And, looking at the points, this is the typical, modern court. Super slow, players get to everything, and every other point is a monster rally.
BTW. Medvedev said that "Everybody is a contender here". He should know a bit.
by ashkor87
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:47 pm
And...
So much for Rublev having no chance of winning.
Don't take it personally, Ashkor, but nobody here has 0%. And, looking at the points, this is the typical, modern court. Super slow, players get to everything, and every other point is a monster rally.
BTW. Medvedev said that "Everybody is a contender here". He should know a bit.
Certainly the court isn't quick .
by ashkor87 But people need to understand that these percentages are just a way of expressing the chances..0% and 2% both mean the same thing..hardly any chance at all, in my opinion. I still think Rublev and Fritz have hardly any chance of winning the title..not that they won't win a match!
by ponchi101
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:20 pm
But people need to understand that these percentages are just a way of expressing the chances..0% and 2% both mean the same thing..hardly any chance at all, in my opinion. I still think Rublev and Fritz have hardly any chance of winning the title..not that they won't win a match!
Please, take this with a LOT of sense of humor.
I find it a bit odd that a person from India will say that 0% means the same as 2%. You guys INVENTED the number! If you were to say that 1% is, in all practical purposes, the same as 2%, sure. The difference is trivial. But 0% is so absolute that that is where I find that prediction odd.
Anyway. After yesterday's matches, my prediction of FAA winning this thing went out the window. He was blasting his FH and still, Ruud got to it. And Fritz played a very solid match (Rafa didn't). So count my predictions null.
In our PREDICTIONS game, so far, I am 0-3. I have called every single match already played wrong.
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ponchi101 And that is brave. I applaud him.
by ti-amieTuesday, November 15, 2022 Day 3
Centre Court Starts At 11:30 Am
RR
(3) Marcelo Arevalo/Jean-Julien Rojer VS (7) Marcel Granollers/Horacio Zeballos
Not Before 2:00 Pm
RR
(1) Rafael Nadal VS (5) Felix Auger-Aliassime
Not Before 6:30 Pm
RR
(2) Rajeev Ram/Joe Salisbury VS (6) Lloyd Glasspool/Harri Heliovaara
Not Before 9:00 Pm
RR
(3) Casper Ruud VS (8) Taylor Fritz
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ponchi101 He was in control the entire match.
I gather, again, that the FAA pick was a bit hasty.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:20 pm
But people need to understand that these percentages are just a way of expressing the chances..0% and 2% both mean the same thing..hardly any chance at all, in my opinion. I still think Rublev and Fritz have hardly any chance of winning the title..not that they won't win a match!
Please, take this with a LOT of sense of humor.
I find it a bit odd that a person from India will say that 0% means the same as 2%. You guys INVENTED the number! If you were to say that 1% is, in all practical purposes, the same as 2%, sure. The difference is trivial. But 0% is so absolute that that is where I find that prediction odd.
Anyway. After yesterday's matches, my prediction of FAA winning this thing went out the window. He was blasting his FH and still, Ruud got to it. And Fritz played a very solid match (Rafa didn't). So count my predictions null.
In our PREDICTIONS game, so far, I am 0-3. I have called every single match already played wrong.
Thank you but there is a place for exactness- a discussion on subjective probabilities is not one of them..people need to understand that. What validity do these probabilities have, anyway? None at all - they are simply a short-hand
by ptmcmahon Using the exact numbers of 0%, is not subjective though. You can say something has a 40% chance and sure that can be subjective.
But not 0%
If I have 100 cookies, eat most of them but not all, I don't say I have "0% of my cookies left."
by ponchi101
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:19 am
...
Thank you but there is a place for exactness- a discussion on subjective probabilities is not one of them..people need to understand that. What validity do these probabilities have, anyway? None at all - they are simply a short-hand
I will revise my probability for Rublev. I think he has a better chance than Tsitsipas right now.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:19 am
...
Thank you but there is a place for exactness- a discussion on subjective probabilities is not one of them..people need to understand that. What validity do these probabilities have, anyway? None at all - they are simply a short-hand
I will revise my probability for Rublev. I think he has a better chance than Tsitsipas right now.
Given that the court is slower thn we expected, that might be a bit premature..Tsitsi can do well on a slow court..so he lost to Djoko- everyone loses to Djoko..remember Garcia winning after losing to Swiatek!
by ashkor87
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:35 am
Using the exact numbers of 0%, is not subjective though. You can say something has a 40% chance and sure that can be subjective.
But not 0%
If I have 100 cookies, eat most of them but not all, I don't say I have "0% of my cookies left."
I suggest we take this offline..not to be rude, but I imagine people on this forum are fed up with this little debate.
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:35 am
Using the exact numbers of 0%, is not subjective though. You can say something has a 40% chance and sure that can be subjective.
But not 0%
If I have 100 cookies, eat most of them but not all, I don't say I have "0% of my cookies left."
I suggest we take this offline..not to be rude, but I imagine people on this forum are fed up with this little debate.
^ This sounds like a variation of "Do you want to step outside?"
I can end the debate right now by saying that if we accept the premise that the future is unpredictable, everything has a 50% chance of occurring, and a 50% chance of not occurring.
by ashkor87 Court looks medium-paced, not fast so I would expect Fritz to handle it well..but Ruud is a higher-class player, I would expect him to win...FAA versus Nadal is harder to predict, Nadal may be fine again after one match for practice...! And the court will not particularly suit FAA...
by Suliso Not yet seeing Nadal adapting and he's running out of time a set and a break behind. He's yet to break anyone's serve in this tournament...
by ponchi101 And he returned to his old return position. Not helping much.
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:35 am
Using the exact numbers of 0%, is not subjective though. You can say something has a 40% chance and sure that can be subjective.
But not 0%
If I have 100 cookies, eat most of them but not all, I don't say I have "0% of my cookies left."
I suggest we take this offline..not to be rude, but I imagine people on this forum are fed up with this little debate.
Nah all good. I'll just remember your 0% doesn't actually mean 0.
by skatingfan So does that mean that Nadal's out now? If so then Alcaraz has clinched the year-end #1.
by ponchi101 It is hard to feel bad for somebody that has won as much as Rafa.
But you have to feel a bit sad that he simply can't get a hand on this tournament.
Let's see how he shows up in Australia.
by meganfernandez
by ashkor87 I am actually surprised Nadal even showed up..I thought he would take it off for a while...I guess he thought as a professional...
by ti-amie
by ponchi101
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:56 pm
I am actually surprised Nadal even showed up..I thought he would take it off for a while...I guess he thought as a professional...
It is the sole thing he has not won. He was not going to miss this.
Plus what you said.
by Suliso Btw Nadal currently on a four match losing streak.
by ponchi101 About changing strokes.
Ruud's serve has improved a lot. He has clocked a couple at 215 KPH in this match. A very quick wind up, very much ala Roscoe Tanner (he hit the ball ON the rise) and hitting the ball at its peak.
This guy has put some hours off court, after the USO. I wonder who his serving coach is.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 6:56 pm
I am actually surprised Nadal even showed up..I thought he would take it off for a while...I guess he thought as a professional...
It is the sole thing he has not won. He was not going to miss this.
Plus what you said.
Out of big events he also did not win Key Biscayne (Miami) and Paris Indoors.
by ponchi101 Yes. Nor China (Shanghai, I think). But he has won plenty of MS1000's.
A well played match by Ruud and Fritz. Rafa is out, Felix and Taylor in a winner-takes-all match.
by ti-amieWednesday, November 16, 2022 Day 4
Centre Court Starts At 11:30 Am
RR
(1) Wesley Koolhof/Neal Skupski VS (4) Nikola Mektic/Mate Pavic
Not Before 2:00 Pm
RR
(6) Andrey Rublev VS (7) Novak Djokovic
Not Before 6:30 Pm
RR
(5) Ivan Dodig/Austin Krajicek VS (8) Thanasi Kokkinakis/Nick Kyrgios
Not Before 9:00 Pm
RR
(2) Stefanos Tsitsipas VS (4) Daniil Medvedev
by ponchi101 Routine work-out for Novak. He is qualified for sure (will need only one set), which makes for a potentially dreadful match on Friday (there is no way he will exert himself to the limit if that match gets stretched).
by ptmcmahon Qualified for sure ... but needs one set and may not exert himself? Contradiction there.
by ponchi101 IF the match gets stretched.
He did that when he won first Masters. He won the first set (against Tsonga), lost the second but, having qualified due to the first set won, blatantly tanked the third.
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by skatingfan Rublev was in that match for the first 9 games, and then he had one poor service game, and let the match get away very quickly. Djokovic was solid, and just let Rublev implode.
by ti-amie
by ti-amieThursday, November 17, 2022 Day 5
Centre Court Starts At 11:30 Am
RR
(6) Lloyd Glasspool/Harri Heliovaara VS (7) Marcel Granollers/Horacio Zeballos
Not Before 2:00 Pm
RR
(1) Rafael Nadal VS (3) Casper Ruud
Not Before 6:30 Pm
RR
(2) Rajeev Ram/Joe Salisbury VS (3) Marcelo Arevalo/Jean-Julien Rojer
Not Before 9:00 Pm
RR
(5) Felix Auger-Aliassime VS (8) Taylor Fritz
by ti-amie
Hakaishin @RhuladSengar
Replying to @AnnaK_4ever
Well, there was no other clear favorite besides Djokovic and Meddy did have that good match against Djokovic and won a tournament before the bad performance in Paris. It's reasonable
by Deuce Tsitsipas - Medvedev was entertaining. Some high quality stuff, but also some bad errors on both sides. It was intriguing, though - until Medvedev disappeared in the 3rd set tiebreak.
I find it absolutely ridiculous how dependent today's players are on their 'team'. For a sport that is supposed to be one-on-one, it's disgusting, really...
Medvedev was actually blaming his team for the errors he was making. It was like they had a remote control, and were controlling his every action, and when shots were missed, Medvedev turned to them, saying "Why did you make me try that shot, you idiots?!"
And Medvedev is far from the only player who does this.
Tsitsipas's dependence on his 'team' during matches is well known.
This is a disturbing trend that is growing...
I see this kind of thing more and more from players - both the men and the women... their 'team' is far, far too important to them during a match. Ok - if you have a 'team' that helps you with various things outside of the matches, fine. But the pro players today are literally behaving like 10 year old children who look to their parents after every point. It's truly ridiculous now.
They should start thinking of banning teams from watching the match from any location where the player can see them.
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:35 am
Using the exact numbers of 0%, is not subjective though. You can say something has a 40% chance and sure that can be subjective.
But not 0%
If I have 100 cookies, eat most of them but not all, I don't say I have "0% of my cookies left."
I suggest we take this offline..not to be rude, but I imagine people on this forum are fed up with this little debate.
... But if you guys DON'T accept the premise that the future is unpredictable, and that everything has a 50% chance of occurring and a 50% chance of not occurring, then this from PBS 'Nova' might help you to resolve your conflict...
by ptmcmahon Oh I definitely say it's unpredictable, that's why I cringe whenever I see something listed as a 0% possibility. Even seeing a 0.1% would mentally calm me down.
Unless something is truly zero percent chance of happening. For example, I had a 0% chance of winning in Turin this week.
by ashkor87 Ruud reminds me of Ferrer...quick, small, light, feisty...hope he can do better than Ferrer did, at winning a big one...
by ashkor87 First match I have been able to watch..Nadal vs Ruud..Nadal is trying out all kinds of things- serve and volley even..Ruud had a brain freeze at 5-6 in the first set, player horrendously..
by ponchi101 Nadal changed his return position for every match this week. And today, he went for 14 aces, which is an inordinate number for him. Quite high.
I think he wanted to ensure he starts next year as #2, to be properly seeded at the Aussie, and wanted those 200 points to stop Tsitsipas from overtaking him.
Also, as he had no pressure today, he seemed a bit looser.
Let's see who joins Ruud. I say FAA, and he would have a bit more chance against Novak. A tiny bit.
by skatingfan
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:32 pm
Nadal changed his return position for every match this week. And today, he went for 14 aces, which is an inordinate number for him. Quite high.
16 aces.
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by Deuce The match was pretty even - until Fritz stepped it up in the 3rd. Felix had a bit of a letdown at the same time... but that was largely because Fritz wasn't missing - he wasn't letting up, just kept the pressure on Felix.
Well done.
The other match was a match without any significant consequences - Nadal was already out, and Ruud had already won his group, by virtue of his wins over Felix and Fritz. You have to wonder if these matches that have absolutely no bearing in the tournament should even be played. There is always the risk of injury - which would be a shame in a useless match - and, as well, there is the very real possibility that one or both players won't be giving 100% - and when that's the case, what is the use of playing the match?
by ponchi101 No player could survive the combined jinx of both Suliso and I picking him as the winner. No one!
A good match by Fritz. I don't know how much of a fight he can give Novak.
So, Novak's laughter probably can be heard in Belgrade already. To win this, he ONLY has to beat Fritz and whomever comes alive between Ruud and the cadaver of Tsitsipas/Rublev.
Piece of cannoli.
by ashkor87 From watching Nadal vs Ruud, it seems to me Nadal is staying closer to the baseline not because he is trying to be more aggressive, but because the balls are not coming through..the bounce is low and pace is not fast..so players have to go to the ball..and Nadal is a great volleyer anyway so he is not afraid to go to the net...
Fritz is doing well because the court is slow ...his own lack of speed doesn't hurt him, neither does the speed of people like FAA get them much advantage .
by skatingfan
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:35 pm
From watching Nadal vs Ruud, it seems to me Nadal is staying closer to the baseline not because he is trying to be more aggressive, but because the balls are not coming through..the bounce is low and pace is not fast..so players have to go to the ball..and Nadal is a great volleyer anyway so he is not afraid to go to the net...
Fritz is doing well because the court is slow ...his own lack of speed doesn't hurt him, neither does the speed of people like FAA get them much advantage .
It's interesting that you say that because the commentators the other day were saying this is the fastest hard court event of the year.
by ti-amieFriday, November 18, 2022 Day 6
Centre Court Starts At 11:30 Am
RR
(1)
Wesley Koolhof/Neal Skupski VS (5) Ivan Dodig/Austin Krajicek
Not Before 2:00 Pm
RR
(4) Daniil Medvedev VS (7) Novak Djokovic
Not Before 6:30 Pm
RR
(4) Nikola Mektic/Mate Pavic VS (8) Thanasi Kokkinakis/Nick Kyrgios
Not Before 9:00 Pm
RR
(2) Stefanos Tsitsipas VS (6) Andrey Rublev
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:35 pm
From watching Nadal vs Ruud, it seems to me Nadal is staying closer to the baseline not because he is trying to be more aggressive, but because the balls are not coming through..the bounce is low and pace is not fast..so players have to go to the ball..and Nadal is a great volleyer anyway so he is not afraid to go to the net...
Fritz is doing well because the court is slow ...his own lack of speed doesn't hurt him, neither does the speed of people like FAA get them much advantage .
It's interesting that you say that because the commentators the other day were saying this is the fastest hard court event of the year.
To me, it is pretty confusing.
There have been very few breaks of serve. Felix and Taylor had two breaks combined (well, Taylor did) and further up the topic the numbers are available. But you have to consider that these are the top 9 players in the world, and you don't get to be a top player if you get broken every other service game.
But then, you see the matches and the players are simply getting to everything. 20 point rallies have been very common.
But then, again, Ace Machine Rafael Nadal (not) hits 16 aces in a two setter.
So, how fast is this court really? I still say it is like all modern courts. Slower than anything that was being laid down in the 80's or 90's.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 11:35 pm
From watching Nadal vs Ruud, it seems to me Nadal is staying closer to the baseline not because he is trying to be more aggressive, but because the balls are not coming through..the bounce is low and pace is not fast..so players have to go to the ball..and Nadal is a great volleyer anyway so he is not afraid to go to the net...
Fritz is doing well because the court is slow ...his own lack of speed doesn't hurt him, neither does the speed of people like FAA get them much advantage .
It's interesting that you say that because the commentators the other day were saying this is the fastest hard court event of the year.
I know..it puzzles me too because that is not what my eyes are telling me!
But I have seen only one match thus far so someone who has watched them all can enlighten us...
by ashkor87 Maybe the low bounce is why people are finding service return difficult..? I really don't know...
by Suliso I think it's just indoor effect. Players find it easier to come up with their best serves without the wind and sun effect.
I wonder if there are any statistics comparing hold % on hard courts indoor and outdoor.
by ashkor87
Suliso wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:44 pm
I think it's just indoor effect. Players find it easier to come up with their best serves without the wind and sun effect.
I wonder if there are any statistics comparing hold % on hard courts indoor and outdoor.
Suliso wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:44 pm
I think it's just indoor effect. Players find it easier to come up with their best serves without the wind and sun effect.
I wonder if there are any statistics comparing hold % on hard courts indoor and outdoor.
Makes sense...
I bet there are. I'll ask Jeff Sackman/Tennis Abstract on Twitter, see if he knows.
by ashkor87 There doesnt appear to be enough room behind the baseline either..Nadal has no option but to hug the baseline! Maybe it is just the camera angle..
by ponchi101 Honor where honor is due.
I said that Novak would tank any third set if it got there, to save energy for tomorrow.
I was totally wrong. He is fighting till the end. Kudos.
by ashkor87 Commendable fighting spirit ..this match doesn't even count..yet he is fighting..
by skatingfan I think Novak wants to win this tournament without losing a match - for the points, the prize money, and the bragging rights.
by ponchi101 I agree with you except for the prize money. For him, that stopped being a motivation a long time ago.
by mick1303 It looks like that Australian Open final destroyed Medvedev. He did not forget how to play, but he forgot how to win. Out of 65 times in the history of this event when a player loses all 3 matches in a round-robin - it is the first time when loser gets beaten 3 times in a 3rd set TB.
by ti-amie
This is usually something that happens when your blood sugar is very low. That said...
LizNYNY
@liznyny
Replying to
@Olly_Tennis_
Surprised that this is happening. He monitors his food intake so carefully that you’d think he would be keeping his sugar and potassium levels up enough during a match. His trainer should be on top of it, too.
Javidan Karkaria
@javidank
Replying to
@Olly_Tennis_
And the Oscar goes to ….
Replying to
@Olly_Tennis_
And the Oscar goes to ….
by ti-amie Did anyone watch the match because...
by ponchi101 Match is still going. But Stefanos clearly smacked a ball towards his box, and since Apostolos won't stop talking, Julia tapped him on the shoulder in a clear "STFU" gesture.
Another person in the box too.
by ponchi101
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:59 pm
You posted a similar post in the RANKINGS topic, and I answered there.
So, copy paste here :
I will bet you two dog-chewed balls Novak won't win
Paris is a court that favors him a lot, and yet he could not win. To me, the problem now for Rafa and Novak is the recovery time; if they have one tough match, specially a late one, they don't have the time to come back. It is the reason they are still so dominant at Slams (with the days-off schedule) but have come down to earth, slightly, on the regular tour.
Having said that:
Rafa: won't win. Not his place.
Tsitsipas: As good a chance as anybody else. Ruud. Not his favorite surface.
Medvedev: Good chances. He likes indoor fast.
FAA: very good chances. He LOVES indoor fast.
Rublev: The one guy that should withdraw so that Rune can get in. Zero chance.
Novak: Contradicting myself here. Betting against him seldom pays off.
Fritz: good fast court player, has some very good strokes, then he fizzles. Or Fritzzles?
Rune: He would not win it; but he would not go 0-3.
You know what, P? Shut up. Really.
(That was a glorious analysis. Especially the Rublev part).
by JazzNU Absolutely shocked Rublev won. He was so damn grumpy in the first set, didn't seem to be nearly dialed in enough to pull it out.
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
JazzNU wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:27 pm
Absolutely shocked Rublev won. He was so damn grumpy in the first set, didn't seem to be nearly dialed in enough to pull it out.
Oleg S. @AnnaK_4ever
Before you ask, no, this is not taken out of context.
To make it even more salty, Stef began this whole tirade with "I mean, he's a good returner. Nothing to take away from him. He played a lot of returns in."
Tennis Majors
@Tennis_Majors
Tsitsipas : "It's a shame. I feel like the better player. I felt like I could do more with the ball today. I felt like I could just be much more creative, quite obvious. He prevailed with the few tools that he has. He was able to really take advantage of them and win today."
by JTContinental I'm assuming everyone had already penciled Fritz and Rublev into the semifinals
by ponchi101 Stefanos is really good at making friends.
"The few tools he has".
What does that say about YOUR toolkit?
by Deuce Tommy Robredo is retiring?!!!!?
He's been around since about when Borg was playing Junior tennis.
Tommy's got to be about 73 years old now - give or take a year.
I would wish him all the best - but we know that he'll be back.
This guy will play until he's 100 - at least.
by ashkor87 It is sometimes better to have fewer tools ..it used to be said of Rosie Casals that she had so many options on every ball she would confuse herself..I don't know if it was really true but it can happen...focus has value in itself!
by ponchi101 Indeed. Sometimes, the decision making process is too complex.
Remember Laconte and Mandlikova. If you gave Laconte a deep ball down the middle, he had 5-6 options. Too much. Mandlikova had that issue at the net; which volley to hit was always a challenge, although most of the times she made them.
by Deuce That was Arazi's problem - he was too naturally gifted, and so could hit almost any shot from anywhere on the court - which to choose?
I see a similar pattern in Musetti today.
Also, when you have the natural talent to have more options than your opponents, it can get into your ego - thinking 'I'm obviously better than him/her, so I'll win' - and, as a result, you don't give 100%.
by JazzNU
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amieSaturday, November 19, 2022 Day 7
Centre Court Starts At 11:30 Am
SF
(2) Rajeev Ram/Joe Salisbury VS (1) Wesley Koolhof/Neal Skupski
Not Before 2:00 Pm
SF
(7) Novak Djokovic VS (8) Taylor Fritz
Not Before 6:30 Pm
SF
(4) Nikola Mektic/Mate Pavic VS (6) Lloyd Glasspool/Harri Heliovaara
Not Before 9:00 Pm
SF
(3) Casper Ruud VS (6) Andrey Rublev
by Deuce Though I think that Djokovic may be capable of pretending he is more tired than he is, he is also getting older. Body metabolism changes with age - no matter how healthy you are eating.
Many of the points in today’s match were also long. And last week, he looked tired in the Final vs. Rune.
And he had major problems with his stamina in his first few years on the tour.
So, taking all of that into account, I think the fatigue today was genuine.
(Or maybe his ‘team’ really are sabotaging him by screwing with his drink mix .)
I will also say that I was surprised by the competitiveness of the match. I posted yesterday, wondering if these matches that have absolutely no effect on the tournament should even be played (the fates of both Medvedev and Djokovic had been determined prior to this match). But they did play it, and both players seemed to be giving 100%. More power to them .
As for Rublev beating Tsitsipas... All of these players are world class level. In a short period like a one week tournament, anyone can beat anyone. The differences show more over the course of a year.
by ti-amie Some of you guys might not know but his nickname is "Fakervic"
by ashkor87 Paraphrasing Lineker who said 'football is a simple game- 22 people kick a ball around for 90 minutes and the Germans always win' or some such ,-
Tennis is a simple game, two guys hit the ball for 3 hours, and Djokovic always wins
by Deuce
ti-amie wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 2:59 am
Some of you guys might not know but his nickname is "Fakervic"
^ I think that comes from his first few years on the tour, when he had some sort of issue with his stamina in pretty much every match.
by mick1303 I think I saw this scenario in YEC already. In 2008. Murray made a point to beat Federer in the last RR match, because he saw a dip in form in Federer and valued the rivalry more than the tournament strategy consideration. He did beat Federer but spent too much of his reserve and ended up losing a semi to Davydenko. I'm afraid Novak is destined to repeat this.
by ashkor87
mick1303 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:38 am
I think I saw this scenario in YEC already. In 2008. Murray made a point to beat Federer in the last RR match, because he saw a dip in form in Federer and valued the rivalry more than the tournament strategy consideration. He did beat Federer but spent too much of his reserve and ended up losing a semi to Davydenko. I'm afraid Novak is destined to repeat this.
mick1303 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:38 am
I think I saw this scenario in YEC already. In 2008. Murray made a point to beat Federer in the last RR match, because he saw a dip in form in Federer and valued the rivalry more than the tournament strategy consideration. He did beat Federer but spent too much of his reserve and ended up losing a semi to Davydenko. I'm afraid Novak is destined to repeat this.
Yes, could happen..I am concerned about that too
And the fact that his match is first on the schedule only adds to this concern...
by patrick
mick1303 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:38 am
I think I saw this scenario in YEC already. In 2008. Murray made a point to beat Federer in the last RR match, because he saw a dip in form in Federer and valued the rivalry more than the tournament strategy consideration. He did beat Federer but spent too much of his reserve and ended up losing a semi to Davydenko. I'm afraid Novak is destined to repeat this.
Federer did win a memorable tiebreak to force a 3rd set. Also, Simon defeated Federer in Cananda and at YEC
by ponchi101
mick1303 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 6:38 am
I think I saw this scenario in YEC already. In 2008. Murray made a point to beat Federer in the last RR match, because he saw a dip in form in Federer and valued the rivalry more than the tournament strategy consideration. He did beat Federer but spent too much of his reserve and ended up losing a semi to Davydenko. I'm afraid Novak is destined to repeat this.
Exactly. And that was the same day in which Novak won the first set, secured the pass to the semis and, after Tsonga won the second set, tanked the third.
Murray and Federer battled for a glorious 3rd set, and Andy had nothing left for the Davidenko match the next day.
Time to talk to Caroline Garcia? Heck, time to DATE Caroline Garcia?
by mick1303 So glad that Novak was able to stay alive and fight another day.
by ponchi101 And the match was not so draining. For sure Rublev or Ruud are younger, but that match can go the distance, late at night.
Novak's chances for tomorrow are excellent.
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by JTContinental I didn't see the match, but it looks like Fritz was in it the whole time. After this week, I definitely feel like he's the most solid American top 10 player on the men's side since Roddick.
by ti-amie
Sunday, November 20, 2022 Day 8
Centre Court Starts At 4:00 Pm
F
(4) Nikola Mektic/Mate Pavic VS (2) Rajeev Ram/Joe Salisbury
Not Before 7:00 Pm
F
(3) Casper Ruud VS (7) Novak Djokovic
by Deuce It's funny to see people writing Djokovic off so easily.
Sure, he's getting older... Sure, he played a draining match vs. Medvedev... But this sport is about the 'intangibles' more than anything else - and the most significant intangible - because it's difficult to physically measure - is psychological strength. Most people continue to ignore/dismiss/not understand how significant this element is.
Ruud continues to impress me more and more. His shots are neither flashy nor spectacular. He reminds me of Borg in that he simply goes about his business - no drama, no controversy, no attention seeking, no temper tantrums, no crazy parents, no flamboyant 'team'... he just goes out there and plays solidly and consistently.
And wins.
That's why I picked him to win in the poll at the top of this page. But it'll be difficult against one of the most psychologically strong players ever.
by ponchi101
JTContinental wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:42 pm
I didn't see the match, but it looks like Fritz was in it the whole time. After this week, I definitely feel like he's the most solid American top 10 player on the men's side since Roddick.
He was. It was one point somewhere.
He served for the set at 5-4 in the second. Just a case of running into the monolith, that was all.
Prediction: if Ruud serves at 75% 1st serves, and keeps his UE's down to 5 per set, he can lose 7-5 in the third.
Serious here. He needs to push it to three, and he just needs to make sure he can extend the sets and hope Novak tires a bit. I give him a solid 25% chance of winning.
by ashkor87 I really don't like that all-green outfit though..!
by JazzNU
JTContinental wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:42 pm
I didn't see the match, but it looks like Fritz was in it the whole time. After this week, I definitely feel like he's the most solid American top 10 player on the men's side since Roddick.
Really? I have almost no faith in him. In a match against Djokovic, but he loses to Brandon Holt. Fine if you want to classify that as a fluke, but since I can't trust him to regularly beat players in the 30-50 range, I definitely don't consider him anywhere near as consistent as Roddick. Maybe I will in the future, but he has too many loses that Roddick didn't tend to have. One or two wouldn't be a red flag to me, but he's got many more than that don't make me think consistency where he is concerned.
by ashkor87 Roddick was a great player..he should have could have won Wimbledon..Fritz is just another big hitting, slow-moving player in the Querrey class..not even Isner..
by ashkor87 The only reason Ruud can beat Djokovic is because Djokovic isn't ok yet, physically...so 80-20 today, normally I would have given Ruud 0 (yes 0, not 0.5,) % chance..
by Deuce Roddick was an arrogant, obnoxious ass. And he had the ugliest game I've ever seen in pro tennis. Watching him play was akin to fingernails scratching a blackboard. Thankfully Federer was there - because if Roddick had become the de facto #1, pro tennis may never have recovered.
Federer was the antithesis of Roddick - polite, respectful, and with a beautifully fluid game that was majestic to watch.
Fritz is very vanilla. He's a good player - but everything about him is just very plain - right down to his facial expression (blank).
He'll have to do significantly more over a longer period of time to pass guys like Isner on the American scale.
JTContinental wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:42 pm
I didn't see the match, but it looks like Fritz was in it the whole time. After this week, I definitely feel like he's the most solid American top 10 player on the men's side since Roddick.
Really? I have almost no faith in him. In a match against Djokovic, but he loses to Brandon Holt. Fine if you want to classify that as a fluke, but since I can't trust him to regularly beat players in the 30-50 range, I definitely don't consider him anywhere near as consistent as Roddick. Maybe I will in the future, but he has too many loses that Roddick didn't tend to have. One or two wouldn't be a red flag to me, but he's got many more than that don't make me think consistency where he is concerned.
Note I said "since Roddick," and not "as good as Roddick." He certainly has more upside than Isner or Jack Sock.
JTContinental wrote: ↑Sat Nov 19, 2022 9:42 pm
I didn't see the match, but it looks like Fritz was in it the whole time. After this week, I definitely feel like he's the most solid American top 10 player on the men's side since Roddick.
Really? I have almost no faith in him. In a match against Djokovic, but he loses to Brandon Holt. Fine if you want to classify that as a fluke, but since I can't trust him to regularly beat players in the 30-50 range, I definitely don't consider him anywhere near as consistent as Roddick. Maybe I will in the future, but he has too many loses that Roddick didn't tend to have. One or two wouldn't be a red flag to me, but he's got many more than that don't make me think consistency where he is concerned.
Note I said "since Roddick," and not "as good as Roddick." He certainly has more upside than Isner or Jack Sock.
I did notice and I can appreciate that distinction. For me, I can't even put him in the same sentence as Roddick right now. I'm not sure I'd say Fritz has greater upside than what Jack had at one time when he got to the top 10. It wasn't realized of course, but I would probably give the edge to Sock in what I remember from how he was talked about and playing at that point.
Maybe I've just received it differently, but the Fritz excitement has seemed rather forced to me based on the American men drought.
I'll be waiting to see if he improves on this year. He's had a good week for sure, but didn't even qualify without the injury, so to say he was playing with house money is an understatement. I certainly don't expect him to win every week or anything, but he gets tripped up a lot by what I would consider good, but not great players.
by ponchi101 Fritz will be in the conversation once Novak finally retires. It is not as if he is considerably worse than FAA, for example.
by ashkor87 Fritz is a good B level player..the game needs people like him..
by JTContinental
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:12 am
Roddick was a great player..he should have could have won Wimbledon..Fritz is just another big hitting, slow-moving player in the Querrey class..not even Isner..
What??? I’m sorry, but this assessment has no basis in reality.
by skatingfan
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:56 pm
I agree with you except for the prize money. For him, that stopped being a motivation a long time ago.
The prize money for going undefeated is an ATP record for one event - I think that might mean something to him.
by ponchi101 It's not chump change, sure. But he has over $150MM only in prize money. I believe he has other motivations. Tying Roger in most YEC means more to him (I would say).
Anyway, mute points by now. He simply wins when he wants to. It has gotten to be that simple.
BTW. Side question. Is he the best server IN THE TOP TEN? Goran has really helped him with that stroke, in the last years.
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ti-amie
by ponchi101 He played different tennis vs Rublev than vs Novak.
Yesterday he was unloading on the FH. Today he did not.
That ^ also shows that Ruud does not truly believe he can beat a top player like Djokovic. And believing you can win is so very important in a sport like tennis.
First, you must believe you CAN win. Then you must believe you WILL win.
There's a huge difference between hoping you can win and believing you will win.
In reference to the money that Djokovic won here - of course it is both insane and obscene. As is always the case with people who have far more money than they can possibly spend, the money itself means nothing to Djokovic - but the STATUS that comes with winning more than anyone else does mean something.
Status, unfortunately, is a very valuable commodity to people today, for it inflates the ego, which tells them - on a very superficial level, of course - that they are 'better' than other people.
Well... I picked the winner of the women's year end championship, and the finalist of the men's year end championship. Not bad, really.
by ashkor87
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:59 pm
You posted a similar post in the RANKINGS topic, and I answered there.
So, copy paste here :
I will bet you two dog-chewed balls Novak won't win
Paris is a court that favors him a lot, and yet he could not win. To me, the problem now for Rafa and Novak is the recovery time; if they have one tough match, specially a late one, they don't have the time to come back. It is the reason they are still so dominant at Slams (with the days-off schedule) but have come down to earth, slightly, on the regular tour.
Having said that:
Rafa: won't win. Not his place.
Tsitsipas: As good a chance as anybody else.
Ruud. Not his favorite surface.
Medvedev: Good chances. He likes indoor fast.
FAA: very good chances. He LOVES indoor fast.
Rublev: The one guy that should withdraw so that Rune can get in. Zero chance.
Novak: Contradicting myself here. Betting against him seldom pays off.
Fritz: good fast court player, has some very good strokes, then he fizzles. Or Fritzzles?
Rune: He would not win it; but he would not go 0-3.
Hmm...
Betting against me is ok but betting against Djokovic?!
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:12 am
Roddick was a great player..he should have could have won Wimbledon..Fritz is just another big hitting, slow-moving player in the Querrey class..not even Isner..
What??? I’m sorry, but this assessment has no basis in reality.
Not sure what you mean..I watched Roddick's Wimbledon losses and I have watched Fritz..good enough for me. What is 'reality'? For me, the evidence of my eyes is reality.Please explain.
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:59 pm
You posted a similar post in the RANKINGS topic, and I answered there.
So, copy paste here :
I will bet you two dog-chewed balls Novak won't win
Paris is a court that favors him a lot, and yet he could not win. To me, the problem now for Rafa and Novak is the recovery time; if they have one tough match, specially a late one, they don't have the time to come back. It is the reason they are still so dominant at Slams (with the days-off schedule) but have come down to earth, slightly, on the regular tour.
Having said that:
Rafa: won't win. Not his place.
Tsitsipas: As good a chance as anybody else.
Ruud. Not his favorite surface.
Medvedev: Good chances. He likes indoor fast.
FAA: very good chances. He LOVES indoor fast.
Rublev: The one guy that should withdraw so that Rune can get in. Zero chance.
Novak: Contradicting myself here. Betting against him seldom pays off.
Fritz: good fast court player, has some very good strokes, then he fizzles. Or Fritzzles?
Rune: He would not win it; but he would not go 0-3.
Hmm...
Betting against me is ok but betting against Djokovic?!
Will never learn my lesson
Do you want your balls?
ponchi101 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 2:59 pm
You posted a similar post in the RANKINGS topic, and I answered there.
So, copy paste here :
I will bet you two dog-chewed balls Novak won't win
Paris is a court that favors him a lot, and yet he could not win. To me, the problem now for Rafa and Novak is the recovery time; if they have one tough match, specially a late one, they don't have the time to come back. It is the reason they are still so dominant at Slams (with the days-off schedule) but have come down to earth, slightly, on the regular tour.
Having said that:
Rafa: won't win. Not his place.
Tsitsipas: As good a chance as anybody else.
Ruud. Not his favorite surface.
Medvedev: Good chances. He likes indoor fast.
FAA: very good chances. He LOVES indoor fast.
Rublev: The one guy that should withdraw so that Rune can get in. Zero chance.
Novak: Contradicting myself here. Betting against him seldom pays off.
Fritz: good fast court player, has some very good strokes, then he fizzles. Or Fritzzles?
Rune: He would not win it; but he would not go 0-3.
Hmm...
Betting against me is ok but betting against Djokovic?!
Will never learn my lesson
Do you want your balls?
I didn't really name my seconds, so to speak, so I don't deserve them! Next time!
by ashkor87 Am impressed with Ruud though..he is now the new gold standard..if you want to be considered a champion, you have to beat Ruud...if you can't, you aren't..
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 2:12 am
Roddick was a great player..he should have could have won Wimbledon..Fritz is just another big hitting, slow-moving player in the Querrey class..not even Isner..
What??? I’m sorry, but this assessment has no basis in reality.
Not sure what you mean..I watched Roddick's Wimbledon losses and I have watched Fritz..good enough for me. What is 'reality'? For me, the evidence of my eyes is reality.Please explain.
Again, I'm not comparing Fritz to Roddick, just saying I think he will turn out to be the most solid American top 10 since the early 2000s. Also, if your eyes are seeing Taylor Fritz running at the same speed or slower as Querrey or Isner, only your ophthamologist can help you with that.
What??? I’m sorry, but this assessment has no basis in reality.
Not sure what you mean..I watched Roddick's Wimbledon losses and I have watched Fritz..good enough for me. What is 'reality'? For me, the evidence of my eyes is reality.Please explain.
Again, I'm not comparing Fritz to Roddick, just saying I think he will turn out to be the most solid American top 10 since the early 2000s. Also, if your eyes are seeing Taylor Fritz running at the same speed or slower as Querrey or Isner, only your ophthamologist can help you with that.
Got it. You are probably right...
by ponchi101
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 3:30 am
Am impressed with Ruud though..he is now the new gold standard..if you want to be considered a champion, you have to beat Ruud...if you can't, you aren't..
His serve has improved a lot.
The consistency has always been there.
To say he has stamina is an understatement.
He is also solid mentally.
But, the net game and the approach game are nowhere near what he needs. I believe he is one of those players that needs to get some special coaching. By that I mean, just one person to teach him better volleys and how to approach the net more forcefully.
I am currently down with an elbow injury so I would recommend Mr. Edberg. Fellow Scandinavian citizen, lives not that far, could help him with a FH volley that is not bad, but can break down. The BH is better.
Still. A very good year for him. I hope he can get a major sometime.
ashkor87 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 3:30 am
Am impressed with Ruud though..he is now the new gold standard..if you want to be considered a champion, you have to beat Ruud...if you can't, you aren't..
His serve has improved a lot.
The consistency has always been there.
To say he has stamina is an understatement.
He is also solid mentally.
But, the net game and the approach game are nowhere near what he needs. I believe he is one of those players that needs to get some special coaching. By that I mean, just one person to teach him better volleys and how to approach the net more forcefully.
I am currently down with an elbow injury so I would recommend Mr. Edberg. Fellow Scandinavian citizen, lives not that far, could help him with a FH volley that is not bad, but can break down. The BH is better.
Still. A very good year for him. I hope he can get a major sometime.
How about Federer, he's available.
by ponchi101 To me, Roger would be as good a coach as Pete. Whom I thought would not be a good coach because he was so natural in his strokes I wondered if he ever knew what he was doing.
Roger would be like: "Do it THIS way", not realizing that only he could do it. It would be like when a mathematician tells you "and it is obvious that blah blah blah" and you are completely lost in a fog of symbols. Obvious for him, of course, not for us normals.
However. If he could spend a week with Roger, training, go for it. Maybe I am very wrong, and Roger could help. So sure, go for it. I am sure Roger's house has extra rooms and he can book a court in Basel with little notice.
by ti-amie I don't think Federer would teach/coach anyone. I'll believe it when I see it.
by JTContinental I don't think he would either, at least not until his 90 children are grown.
by meganfernandez
JTContinental wrote: ↑Mon Nov 21, 2022 8:42 pm
I don't think he would either, at least not until his 90 children are grown.
I don't think he'll coach anyone. I could see him spending time with some of the Team 8 players as an advisor, a week here and there or at a Slam. Roger will stay close to the sport and loves being on court. I think he'll be actively involved in some Team 8 person's career, whether we see it or not.
by skatingfan I don't know that Roger will ever be a full time tour coach, but he has talked about Davis Cup Captain in the past, and we've already seen what kind of coach he is, and I think he'd be good.
by ptmcmahon Coaching at a team exhibition that doesn't mean much is a little different though
by skatingfan
ptmcmahon wrote: ↑Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:38 am
Coaching at a team exhibition that doesn't mean much is a little different though
Which is why I said that a role like Davis Cup captain would be the type of position that he would be interested in.
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