by ti-amie TOP HALF
R.Nadal 1 vs J. Draper
B. Nakashima vs M. McDonald
J. Munar vs Qualifier
M. Ymer vs Y. Nishioka 31
K. Khachanov 18 vs B. Zapata Miralles
S. Baez vs J. Kubler WC
O. Otte vs Qualifier
D. Altmaier vs F. Tiafoe 16
H. Hurkacz 10 vs P. Martinez
L. Sonego vs N. Borges
Qualifier vs T. Daniel
D. Lajovic vs D. Shapovalov 20
S. Korda 29 vs C. Garin
Qualifier vs A. Rinderknech
J. Millman WC vs M. Huesler
M. Giron vs D. Medvedev 7
S. Tsitsipas 3 vs Q. Halys
Qualifier vs R. Hijikata WC
Qualifier vs T. Griekspoor vs
I. Ivashka vs B. van de Zandschulp 32
L. Musetti 17 vs L. Harris
F. Coria vs M. Fucsovics
T. Etcheverry vs G. Barrere
K. Edmund vs J. Sinner 15
C. Norrie 11 vs L. Van Assche WC
T. Monteiro vs C. Lestienne
C. Eubanks WC vs S. Kwon
J. Lehecka vs B. Coric 21
F. Cerundolo 28 vs G. Pella
C. Moutet vs Y. Wu WC
A. Molcan vs S. Wawrinka
V. Pospisil vs F. Auger-Aliassime 6
BOTTOM HALF
A. Rublev 5 vs D. Thiem WC
Qualifier vs E. Ruusuvuori
D. Galan vs J. Chardy
F. Bagnis vs D. Evans 25
N. Kyrgios 19 vs R. Safiullin
R. Gasquet vs U. Humbert
M. Cressy vs A. Ramos-Vinolas
F. Krajinovic vs H. Rune 9
P. Carreno Busta 14 vs P. Cachin
Qualifier vs B. Bonzi
J. Isner vs A. Mannarino
Qualifier vs A. de Minaur 22
G. Dimitrov 27 vs A. Karatsev
Qualifier vs L. Djere
Qualifier vs H. Dellien
R. Carballes Baena vs N. Djokovic 4
T. Fritz 8 vs N. Basilashvili
C. Tseng vs A. Popyrin WC
B. Shelton vs Z. Zhang
Qualifier vs M. Kecmanovic 26
D. Schwartzman 23 vs Qualifier
J. Wolf vs J. Thompson
D. Goffin vs Qualifier
Qualifier vs A. Zverev 12
M. Berrettini 13 vs A. Murray
T. Kokkinakis vs F. Fognini
Qualifier vs Qualifier
J. Sousa vs R. Bautista Agut 24
A. Davidovich Fokina 30 vs A. Bublik
Qualifier vs T. Paul
C. O'Connell vs J. Brooksby
T. Machac vs C. Ruud 2
by JTContinental Draper/Nadal could be a popcorn match given the form of both players.
by ashkor87 Why 2 options? The men's is more open and shut than the women's!
by ashkor87 cant seem to find a decent printable draw.. anyone find one? please post link
by ashkor87 projected semis, based on the draw...
Djokovic vs Ruud
Sinner v/s Medvedev
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:38 am
Why 2 options? The men's is more open and shut than the women's!
I put in two options because I believe that Djokovic is such a prohibitive favorite that we should have WHO WIN and WHO HAS THE SECOND BEST CHANCE.
You beat me to posting this explanation.
I did not think of posting the poll in a different phrasing.
by jazzyg I do not think Djokovic is a lock, but obviously picking anyone else would make no sense given on only choice, so I like the idea of picking two.
Medvedev has not shown much since blowing the two-set lead in last year's final, but if Djokovic's hamstring injury proves to be a hindrance or some other injury crops up, I can't see anyone else but Medvedev who is capable of winning seven matches.
by ponchi101 If the injury flares up, sure. But that is a given for everybody.
I went by elimination: do I see any of the other top 10 players getting this? And I can't.
So it is Novak or OTHER. I hope Mr. Other can do it.
by Fastbackss I may have fired up a betting app for the first time in a while (once the draw came out) out of curiosity to see what the odds were for the tournament.
FanDuel has a "big guns vs the field" - in which they have a bet you can pick two top players (that they specify) or the remaining 126.
Interestingly, albeit not surprisingly, Djokovic / Medvedev would actually return under 1:1 odds. Swiatek / jabeur would return a positive multiple on your investment.
by dave g Does anyone remember which half of the men's draw plays on Day 1? Since it changes with each major, I haven't learn to keep track of what each major does for Day 1.
by Suliso top half for both draws
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:12 am
cant seem to find a decent printable draw.. anyone find one? please post link
You can print from this site, Ashkor.
At the bottom of the page you have a little hammer, that are the tools. You have two print layouts.
They will give you an output, and then you can print from your browser facility.
by
Deuce It's a wrench.
by ashkor87 Now that Nadal is gone, Medvedev's chances look a bit brighter..the court is quite quick, will suit him and Sinner too..Djokovic should still win but...
by ponchi101 I just don't know what holds Sinner back, but yes, he is in the mix now. Yesterday he played a very solid game (I know, Etcheverry is not a huge test but he did what he had to).
by ashkor87 Pleasantly surprised by Rublev and Paul...disappointed with FAA and sinner...
by
ponchi101 ashkor87 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:11 pm
Pleasantly surprised by Rublev and Paul...disappointed with FAA and sinner...
I like Paul's game a lot. Solid of both wings, moves very well. But I don't see him having a big shot, something to really dictate points and a match.
Unfortunately, he will go down to Novak by about the same score as Rublev. He has no game to trouble Novak.
by JazzNU I thought this was more of the same from Rublev, so not all that impressed. I'm truly not sure what was wrong with Rune in that match, but it seemed most other days Rublev would've managed to lose that one. And going out in a whimper to Novak isn't great for a top player, especially one that has beaten him before. I expected Novak to win, but that scoreline is rough.
I've sort of given up on Rublev at Slams at this point. I'm not set in stone like I am with Pliskova, if he starts to be more impressive at Masters, I could see changing my mind and having some level of belief it could happen, but he seems less and less like a contender each time.
by ti-amie I really like Rublev but like FAA and Sinner I think he is stuck. Jazz is right. When he starts doing better at M1000 he'll do better at Slams.
by
JazzNU ti-amie wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:51 pm
I really like Rublev but like FAA and Sinner I think he is stuck. Jazz is right. When he starts doing better at M1000 he'll do better at Slams.
So I mostly think Sinner and FAA are young and need more time. For me, Sinner has shown me more against Top 10 competition than Rublev has and improved over the last year in some ways, even though he didn't make Masters final again (pretty sure he reached QFs in all the majors or 3 of the 4 for the first time). I thought FAA was stuck 2 years ago, but with his Wimbledon run in 2021 and his end of 2022 season form, I think he's getting there. I was more worried about FAA not regaining that Wimbledon form before the end of last year, now I'm much less concerned about him getting there after what he showed. But it's a bit concerning that indoor appears to be his best surface, I'd like to see more of that from him outdoors. Kind of makes me think there's a possibility his biggest win might be winning the ATP Tour Finals.
Rublev isn't giving me any of that unfortunately and that's why I'm looking at him so much less as a contender. He's also older and his game seems to have gotten to where it's going to get unlike Sinner and FAA, who are very clearly still working to tweak their games. But I'm hoping I'm wrong about that, because it could be that a new coach could get him over the hump, but his current game doesn't appear as if it will do the damage he was thinking it would to top players.
by ponchi101 What was the game plan for Rublev? I saw some highlights. It was: THE SAME THING HE ALWAYS DOES. Blasting an inside-out FH right into Djokovic's best shot, his BH.
I know you can't completely get away from your strengths, but when your strength fits like a key on the lock of the other guy, you have to do something else.
His game is the same always. That will not cut it with Novak.
(To give him some leeway, nothing does, but that is another conversation).
by ponchi101 What was the game plan for Rublev? I saw some highlights. It was: THE SAME THING HE ALWAYS DOES. Blasting an inside-out FH right into Djokovic's best shot, his BH.
I know you can't completely get away from your strengths, but when your strength fits like a key on the lock of the other guy, you have to do something else.
His game is the same always. That will not cut it with Novak.
(To give him some leeway, nothing does, but that is another conversation).
by ashkor87 I had never taken Rublev seriously as a major contender so pleasantly surprised..same with Paul, though I love his willingness to volley, has a deft touch..but otherwise, yes, agree with all of you here.
by Fastbackss Curiously looked at odds tonight.
Stefanos is only getting 4-1 - would need to be higher than that for me to do it.
Ah - set isn't good value either - it's 0.58 to 1.
Oddly There's some value in 0.9 to 1 for Novak to win more than 21 games total, if you think stefanos will take a set. For him to win it's 0.18 to 1
by ashkor87 I cant understand people betting on how many games someone will win - those things are too random, really - great players know when to apply pressure, they dont do it all the time.. I would bet Djokovic will win (75% probability) but how many sets? who knows?
by ponchi101 Betting on how many games the winner will get is a smaller range of possibilities. If you think he will win in three easy, it is only 18. Three hard fought, it is 21.
But people will bet on anything. That is the reason why it is such a huge industry (plus the money laundering possibilities).
by Fastbackss There are so many options for betting on a match that it's overwhelming for me, even as someone who ardently follows tennis.
A buddy asked me some questions regarding odds for the final, so I was digging through the extra options. I wonder how many people actually do some of the unique ones; clearly it must justify the effort to craft the odds for all of them.
PS - the site I got that from doesn't do it, but there is another service that has micro-betting. You can bet on who will win the next point even. I did it once as an experiment to see how long I could "keep up." It was less than 2 games. (But to be fair, I was watching it on tv (it was also streamed within the betting app somehow), and the tv was lagging behind roughly 15 seconds which made it frustrating)
by ashkor87 Fortunately for me, betting on sports is illegal where I live..else I would have dropped a fortune on it by now!
by ashkor87 Does anyone here think Tsitsipas has more than a 10% chance? Remember, the last time they played was on clay..suits tsitsi much better than this relatively faster surface does....here, his topspun shots just sit up and beg to be hit...
by
ponchi101 I can watch a Novak match if I think the other person has a chance. Last night I woke up at 3:30 to watch Aryna/Elena, and I was not disappointed.
But there is no way that I will get up to watch Novak crush Stefanos. I say your 10% is generous (how unusual, we disagree
); the sole chance I give Stefanos is through injury.
Novak is basically at his peak, and he is impossible to push around or pass. When Novak warms up a little, he will start moving Stefanos around and punishing him. From there, Apostolos will start freaking out and that spills onto the court.
I don't see any upside for anybody that is not a Novak fan. I congratulate them for this win.
(I hope I will eat my words).
by ashkor87 Well, you make it too much fun to disagree with you..all your fault then!
by ashkor87 I expect to see the dominant Djokovic today, who beat Nadal so thoroughly the last time they met in the AO final, it was frightening to see.
by
meganfernandez ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 29, 2023 8:49 am
I expect to see the dominant Djokovic today, who beat Nadal so thoroughly the last time they met in the AO final, it was frightening to see.
What has your assessment been? Has he been as dominant as you expected? I thought Stef would challenge a little more. Novak has been very impressive but not steamrolling like in the previous rounds. But I guess if you win a Slam in straight sets, you're pretty dominant.
by ashkor87 No, it has been much closer than I expected..Tsitsi has put up a good fight...