Talk About Tennis 2.0

Amazing stats from the women's final- Sabalenka had fewer aces, fewer dfs, fewer winners and fewer ufe!

ashkor87 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 11:57 am Probability of winning a major twice in a row is Not the same as Probability of winning a given major given that he/she won it last year. This is a typical fallacy.

Explain, please.
If you won it TWICE IN A ROW, that literally means that you won it this year AND THE LAST YEAR. Unless you mean that a player won one major AND the one before (i.e. The Aussie and the USO of the previous year, RG and AO on the same year, etc).

i mean the following are different in probability terms:
Probability of winning two majors in a row
Probablity of wining a major given that you won it last year already

that is all. A question of what the 'given ' is or, as Bayesian probability theorists like to say, what the 'priors' are.

The second is more likely obviously (additional surface effect), but it doesn't happen very often either. Unless you dominate the game already and win Slams left and right.

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This star continues to ascend
@OdaTokito now holds three of the four wheelchair singles majors!

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"Age truly is not a number for this guy. He’s young at heart, he’s a warrior” @mattebden
•@rohanbopanna
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Junior Champ
No.1 seed Renata Jamrichova claimed her first Grand Slam girls' singles title at the
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The Associated Press
Rei Sakamoto of Japan poses with his trophy at the Australian Open championships in Melbourne on Saturday.

Suliso wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 5:24 pm The second is more likely obviously (additional surface effect), but it doesn't happen very often either. Unless you dominate the game already and win Slams left and right.

Yes but considerably higher than the first, and higher than people think..

Jannik Sinner is the 28th different AO winner in the open era (56 years). Also since 2000 he's the fourth player to win this tournament before turning 23 (the other three are the obvious ones).

Also Jannik is only the third male Italian GS winner and the first two do it off clay.

Another interesting factoid - Medvedev is the first player in the open era to lose multiple Slam finals from 2-0 up.

Sabalenka was very impressive this year.. no DFs, UFEs were few, no wild mood swings.. she has really learned to control her aggression - tiger on a leash! This Sabalenka will be very hard to beat, for anyone, on any surface..Sinner too, has grown a lot.. though the surface did favor him, it was not that decisive a factor.. he will be a force everywhere except clay.. certainly grass and hard courts..

I'm reading that so far the most watched tennis match ever in Italy was last years ATP tour final between Sinner and Djokovic. Perhaps ratings for the AO final will be even higher?

Friend of mine lives in Torino.
I know it's only third year there, and sometimes takes time for event to build, but he said this year had by far the most energy in town