by ti-amie Mens Singles Draw
N. Djokovic 1 vs Qualifier/LL
A. Popyrin vs M. Polmans WC
Y. Hanfmann vs G. Monfils
A. Murray vs T. Etcheverry 30
A. Mannarino 20 vs S. Wawrinka
A. Shevchenko vs J. Munar
C. O'Connell vs C. Garin
R. Bautista Agut vs B. Shelton 16
T. Fritz 12 vs F. Diaz Acosta
R. Carballes Baena vs B. Gojo
F. Marozsan vs M. Cilic
Qualifer/LL vs F. Cerundolo 22
L. Musetti 25 vs B. Bonzi
J. Duckworth WC vs L. Van Assche
A. Vukic vs J. Thompson
M. Berrettini vs S. Tsitsipas 7
J. Sinner 4 vs B. van de Zandschulp
Qualifier/LL vs P. Cachin
D. Galan vs J. Kubler WC
J. Wolf vs S. Baez 26
F. Tiafoe 17 vs B. Coric
T. Machac vs Qualifier/LL
A. Tabilo vs Qualifer/LL
D. Altmaier vs K. Khachanov 15
A. de Minaur 10 vs M. Raonic
M. Arnaldi vs A. Walton WC
P. Kotov vs A. Rinderknech
Qualifier/LL vs N. Jarry 18
S. Korda 29 vs Qualifier/LL
Q. Halys vs Qualifier/LL
C. Eubanks vs T. Daniel
T. Seyboth Wild vs A. Rublev 5
Bottom Half
H. Rune 8 vs Y. Nishioka
L. Djere vs A. Cazaux WC
A. Fils vs J. Vesely
R. Safiullin vs T. Griekspoor 28
U. Humbert 21 vs Qualifier/LL
Z. Zhang vs F. Coria
D. Shapovalov vs Qualifer/LL
Qualifier/LL vs H. Hurkacz 9
G. Dimitrov 13 vs M. Fucsovics
S. Ofner vs T. Kokkinakis
M. Marterer vs N. Borges
C. Lestienne vs A. Davidovich Fokina 23
F. Auger-Aliassime 27 vs D. Thiem
A. Muller vs Qualifer/LL
P. Kypson WC vs E. Ruusuvuori
Qualifier/LL vs D. Medvedev 3
A. Zverev 6 vs D. Koepfer
S. Kwon vs Qualifier/LL
J. McCabe WC vs A. Michelsen
B. Zapata Miralles vs J. Lehecka 32
C. Norrie 19 vs J. Varillas
D. Lajovic vs Qualifier/LL
M. Purcell vs Qualifier/LL
A. Ramos-Vinolas vs C. Ruud 11
T. Paul 14 vs G. Barrere
M. Giron vs J. Draper
M. Kecmanovic vs Y. Watanuki
R. Hijikata vs J. Struff 24
A. Bublik 31 vs Qualifier/LL
M. McDonald vs J. Shang WC
D. Evans vs L. Sonego
R. Gasquet vs C. Alcaraz 2
by Fastbackss Sinner vs Botic
De Minaur vs Raonic
Felix vs Thiem
Gasquet vs Alcaraz
Eubanks vs Daniel
These are the most interesting first rounders I see
by ashkor87 likely first round upset: Tiafoe to Coric...not expecting any others, really..in the first round.
by ponchi101 Uhm... The days of Tiafoe being a TOTAL head case are a bit behind him. Sure, he can lose it, but not again the lower players.
I say that is a 60-40 match, for Francis.
by
ashkor87 ponchi101 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:12 pm
Uhm... The days of Tiafoe being a TOTAL head case are a bit behind him. Sure, he can lose it, but not again the lower players.
I say that is a 60-40 match, for Francis.
His recent record is pretty poor..so is Coric's of course but I am more disappointed with Tiafoe's decline...
by ti-amie I think Tiafoe has plateaued. He worked his way to a more than decent level and now seems to be stuck. Let's see how he does vs Coric, who when he's not injured is pretty decent and can steal a match or two.
by ponchi101 About him having plateaued. Agree. He took his talent to his highest level. Now, I don't know what else he could do.
by ashkor87 He hasn't stayed at that level though....
by Suliso Hard to stay at ones highest possible level constantly. He might still get back there.
by ponchi101 His style is prone to fluctuations. The flashiness is there, but the silly choices remain (although he did cut down on them).
But I don't think that he is truly a "permanent top 15" player, ala Ferrer, Henman or Tsonga. I don't think he can reach consistency. And maybe his SF USO run was his peak. Which is a fine one.
by Suliso Who are the current "permanent top 15", but not good enough for a Slam title?
by ponchi101 Can't name them all, but there are a few I don't think will get a slam:
Rublev. The lack of variety will always hurt him.
Fritz. Although I can't see what's missing.
Zverev. He went out due to injury, and now he is back. But I don't know if he can get a slam.
Stefanos. Same as above, but now that back injury is worrisome.
Ruud. He will be in this group for a good time, because he can win a lot on clay. I don't know if he will be able to take that next step, although RG seems possible once Novak retires.
This ties to another question we asked a while back: how many current players will make it into the top 10 at one time in their career? I am surprised, for example, that DeMinaur just made it
by ponchi101 Poll started. 6 votes, to be spread amongst up to three players, with a maximum of three votes to any player.
by ashkor87
has the draw in printable form
by
ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:01 pm
Who are the current "permanent top 15", but not good enough for a Slam title?
everyone except those who have already won one, and Sinner...!
by Jeff from TX Berrettini can take down Tsitsipipas, esp. with his back. And I could see Raonic giving De Minaur issues on this surface if he is serving well.
by
skatingfan Jeff from TX wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:44 pm
Berrettini can take down Tsitsipipas, esp. with his back. And I could see Raonic giving De Minaur issues on this surface if he is serving well.
Berrettini is out to injury.
by
ponchi101 Jeff from TX wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:44 pm
Berrettini can take down Tsitsipipas, esp. with his back. And I could see Raonic giving De Minaur issues on this surface if he is serving well.
Once Deminaur returns Milos serve, the odds for the point switch to 60-40 Alex. He is too fast and too consistent for today's Milos.
8 years ago, I would agree.
by
meganfernandez skatingfan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 7:20 am
Jeff from TX wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:44 pm
Berrettini can take down Tsitsipipas, esp. with his back. And I could see Raonic giving De Minaur issues on this surface if he is serving well.
Berrettini is out to injury.
And he couldn't have forseen this in time to give a LL a spot? Geezus. Surely he knew he wasn't fit enough to make a serious run. So why stay in the draw this late?
by ponchi101 Cash the money. Sole explanation.
Or he is truly an A-hole because the rules allow you to withdraw and still cash some, right?
by
skatingfan meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:44 pm
And he couldn't have forseen this in time to give a LL a spot? Geezus. Surely he knew he wasn't fit enough to make a serious run. So why stay in the draw this late?
I'm not sure what you're taking about Megan. It shows a LL in his spot against Tsitsipas. Z. Bergs, Belgium, has the spot.
by
meganfernandez ponchi101 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 4:09 pm
Cash the money. Sole explanation.
Or he is truly an A-hole because the rules allow you to withdraw and still cash some, right?
Yeah, I thought R1 withdrawals get the full prize money because they basically earned it with their ranking. Maybe I'm wrong.
by
meganfernandez skatingfan wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 7:27 pm
meganfernandez wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:44 pm
And he couldn't have forseen this in time to give a LL a spot? Geezus. Surely he knew he wasn't fit enough to make a serious run. So why stay in the draw this late?
I'm not sure what you're taking about Megan. It shows a LL in his spot against Tsitsipas. Z. Bergs, Belgium, has the spot.
Oh, good, then he did withdraw in time! I thought he hadn't.
by skatingfan Grand Slam Debuts
Terrence Atmane, France (22)
Jesper de Jong, Netherlands (23)
Vit Kopriva, Czech Republic (26)
James McCabe, Australia (20)
Dino Prizmic, Croatia (18)
Dane Sweeny, Australia (22)
Mate Valkusz, Hungary (25)
Adam Walton, Australia (24)
Australian Open Debuts
Matteo Arnaldi, Italy (22)
Arthur Cazaux, France (21)
Flavio Cobolli, Italy (21)
Facundo Diaz Acosta, Argentina (23)
Arthur Fils, France (19)
Hugo Grenier, France (27)
Lukas Klein, Slovakia (25)
Patrick Kypson, United States of America (24)
Aleksander Kovacevic, United States of America (25)
Fabian Marozsan, Hungary (24)
Jakub Mensik, Czech Republic (18)
Alex Michelsen, United States of America (19)
Shintaro Mochizuki, Japan (20)
Sebastian Ofner, Austria (27)
Alexander Shevchenko, Russia (23)
Giulio Zeppieri, Italy (22)
by martini4me Unlike the women's draw (carnage), the men's draw has gone remarkably to form. Seven of the top eight seed have made it to the round of 16, and the only one missing (the eighth seed) is replaced by the nine seed.
by
ptmcmahon Only the top 8 though. None of us could make it there in the SP
by Suliso ATP draw has been incredibly pecking order based. Only #7 and #8 didn't make QF's, replaced with #9 and #12.
I give it 90% chance of top 4 making SF's and 50% of that happening + #1 beating #2 in the final...
by
ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 11:41 am
ATP draw has been incredibly pecking order base. Only #7 and #8 didn't make QF's, replaced with #9 and #12.
I give it 90% chance of top 4 making SF's and 50% of that happening + #1 beating #2 in the final...
First time in the Open Era it seems, that the top 6 have made it to the QFs
by
ptmcmahon Suliso wrote: ↑Mon Jan 22, 2024 11:41 am
ATP draw has been incredibly pecking order based. Only #7 and #8 didn't make QF's, replaced with #9 and #12.
I give it 90% chance of top 4 making SF's and 50% of that happening + #1 beating #2 in the final...
Now to unleash the full power of your jinxing abilities!
by ashkor87 I think this Sinner will beat this Djokovic 60-40 Sinner. Djokovic did not play all that well against Fritz..maybe the heat? Day match..? Sinner, in the other hand, reminds me most of ...Djokovic!
by Suliso Funny that a year ago (or two) there were still arguments that Musetti is better...
by ponchi101 Musetti has more variety, and the game is more elegant (whatever that means).
But I don't recall anybody saying he was better than Sinner. And that would be a very strange statement to make.
by Suliso Musetti seems to have stalled in his development, but of course still very young.
Incidentally there is now a small group of very young French players coming up --> Arthur Fils (19, #35), Luca Van Assche (19, #65) and Arthur Cazaux (21, #83). I've not yet seen them play much...
by jazzyg I thought Djokovic played very well against Fritz except on the break points. He could not get his first serve in during the first set, but once the ball was in play, he was terrific as he almost always is. Fritz hit 40 winners in the first two sets alone, so I don't want to hear anything about how he is not that good of a player. His game went down dramatically in the third and fourth sets, but he was redlining in the first two.
by
nelslus jazzyg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:15 pm
I thought Djokovic played very well against Fritz except on the break points. He could not get his first serve in during the first set, but once the ball was in play, he was terrific as he almost always is. Fritz hit 40 winners in the first two sets alone, so I don't want to hear anything about how he is not that good of a player. His game went down dramatically in the third and fourth sets, but he was redlining in the first two.
.....Fritz is not that good a player. (I mean, it IS true).
by
nelslus Suliso wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 2:48 pm
Funny that a year ago (or two) there were still arguments that Musetti is better...
.....Where was I when this argument was taking place?!?!
(As i quickly scroll through MY TAT post history, and, if necessary, delete any idiot Musetti vs. Sinner comment that I might have made.....)
by skatingfan Whatever happened with Fritz's ankle in the 3rd set had a big impact on the match.
by
jazzyg nelslus wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 5:52 pm
jazzyg wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 4:15 pm
I thought Djokovic played very well against Fritz except on the break points. He could not get his first serve in during the first set, but once the ball was in play, he was terrific as he almost always is. Fritz hit 40 winners in the first two sets alone, so I don't want to hear anything about how he is not that good of a player. His game went down dramatically in the third and fourth sets, but he was redlining in the first two.
.....Fritz is not that good a player. (I mean, it IS true).
I guess I worded my post poorly. Does not matter how good Fritz is. He was on fire for the 1st 2 sets, hitting 40 winners. In those two sets he was really good. If you can't see that, you can't see.
by
ponchi101 The #12 player in the world, who has been top 10 and the USA's #1, is NOT a good player.
And you (Nelslus) have at times reminded me that sometimes I go too extreme
C'mon, the guy is damn good. He just simply lives in an era in which... you know.
by
nelslus ponchi101 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 23, 2024 8:23 pm
The #12 player in the world, who has been top 10 and the USA's #1, is NOT a good player.
And you (Nelslus) have at times reminded me that sometimes I go too extreme
C'mon, the guy is damn good. He just simply lives in an era in which... you know.
.....In what era would Taylor have excelled?
by nelslus PS: TO be clear- I said that Taylor is not THAT good a player....to, say, win a Slam, and in any Slam match facing Novak. Obviously, Taylor can play great, and win many matches. All of these players can play great. However, Taylor has managed, over the past few years, to show some great play more often than almost all of the other players.
I go back to when John and I once heard Davenport say on Tennis Channel- when Madison Keys plays her best- no one can beat her. I mean, sure- if she went to a Slam final and hit all aces and nothing but winners- she'd win a Slam title. But, you have to make the great, big shots on the big points to win Slam titles. Very, very few ever can do that. Taylor and Madison have huge weapons. (I was there live to see Madison absolutely make Sabalenka irrelevant in the first set of their US Open SF last year- amazing, even at times breathtaking tennis. Even had a match point in the second set, with her level dropping some. Then.....) Some players just are not meant for greatness.
by Suliso Some players also get a bit lucky. Was Flavia Pennetta (as much as I liked her) really meant for greatness? There are few more GS winners like that...
by jazzyg Luck is definitely a factor.
Rublev gets killed for being 0-10 in quarterfinals, but he is better than a lot of players who have broken through to a semifinal (say, Khachanov). Wasn't mentally strong enough earlier in his career and has been stuck with brutal opponents in the quarterfinals last year and this year.
by
nelslus Isn't this all lovely? AT least for now- Broom Closet Boris is right about Carlos- They figured him out! He's all washed up! Novak and Medvedev decided, of all things, to make snarky comments about.....Ben. So that none of them have to deal with their own deplorable s**t and histories. As Milquetoast Courier gets to provide the on-court post-match triumphant interview with Zverev. What- he beats up women?!??! NOTHING to see here!!!!
So, our remaining male SF's are three absolutely horrible people. AND.....well, Sinner.
For now, I ignore the rest of the men's tournament. Go Hseih!!!! (Until we inevitably find out something horrible about her). And put off thoughts on how much I want to spend tons of $'s on the likes of the US Open. And how much I can still love this sport.
OH, AND, btw, a psycho monster has a great shot to become the USA President for the second time. Just to add to my pleasant current mood. NOTHING to see here!!!! USA!!!! USA!!!!
I MEAN- If you can't see all of this, you can't see.
by
ashkor87 Suliso wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:19 am
Some players also get a bit lucky. Was Flavia Pennetta (as much as I liked her) really meant for greatness? There are few more GS winners like that...
True, but remember Flavia had won Indian Wells the previous year and had actually bageled Serena in some big tournament. She was better than her ranking suggested...
by Suliso Nobody saying she was bad. She was top 10 good at her prime, but not really GS title good. Perhaps Kasatkina or Haddad Maia would be good analogues today.
by
meganfernandez Suliso wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:42 pm
Nobody saying she was bad. She was top 10 good at her prime, but not really GS title good. Perhaps Kasatkina or Haddad Maia would be good analogues today.
Exactly. Like Myskina or Ivanovic (but at least she made two other finals, so she's half a step higher). The draw broke right and they were playing well. Maybe Sloane, too.
by ti-amie The men's tournament is over for me.
by
Suliso If you only care about Alcaraz then for sure. For me it's now just starting!
by
ti-amie Suliso wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:25 pm
If you only care about Alcaraz then for sure. For me it's now just starting!
The only one I can stand is Sinner and that's not enough to make me watch the men's semi's or the Final.
by
ti-amie Suliso wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 7:25 pm
If you only care about Alcaraz then for sure. For me it's now just starting!
The only one I can stand is Sinner and that's not enough to make me watch the men's semi's or the Final.
by
Fastbackss jazzyg wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 3:29 pm
Luck is definitely a factor.
Rublev gets killed for being 0-10 in quarterfinals, but he is better than a lot of players who have broken through to a semifinal (say, Khachanov). Wasn't mentally strong enough earlier in his career and has been stuck with brutal opponents in the quarterfinals last year and this year.