'24 Aus Open Day 10 Order of Play & Discussion

[Fastbackss]

Woke up and put on Sabalenka-Krejcikova match. They were showing a replay, so the score was missing.
I saw Barbora wasn't wearing long sleeves and I thought "she's losing handily."
Yup

[ashkor87]

Sabalenka is going to eat Coco alive.

maybe but mentally, Coco is much stronger than Saba... I am still backing Coco for the title, though Sabalenka is clearly playing the best right now..

[ponchi101]

For some reason, Aryna has gotten a reputation that she is not mentally strong.
Which begets the question: ever seen a mentally weak player be able to fix a shot the way Sabalenka fixed her serve?
I don't see much difference between Coco and Aryna, mentally. I find they both compete well.

[martini4me]

Still at least 2 sets to play in Djokovic/Fritz, and the night session on Laver is supposed be starting now. Are they really going to hold the night matches until after 10pm local before they start?

Oh, so this is why they're only in the second set as I wake up in the morning. I was thinking there must have been some major disruption (heavy rain and a roof leak, or evacuation due to a bomb threat) overnight to be so far behind schedule.
I suppose the Gauff-Yastremska match was over three hours. And they didn't start singles play until 1:00 p.m., just so that we could have the joy of watching Casey Dellacqua and Iva Majoli play old ladies doubles.

[Suliso]

As most of us would have easily predicted Sinner slowly, but surely ground down Rublev. Straight sets today and no serve lost!

In fact Jannik has now advanced to his 2nd GS SF without dropping a set and only losing his serve twice.

[ponchi101]

He will push Novak to his usual limit of three very close sets, making a lot of people dream for minutes that the inevitable will not happen.
And then Novak will simply close the door on him.
5, 6 & 5, Novak.

[Suliso]

I think it will be much closer than that, BUT beating Djokovic at his favorite Slam is a very tough proposition. Not impossible (see Wawrinka), but very hard indeed...

[meganfernandez]

For some reason, Aryna has gotten a reputation that she is not mentally strong.
Which begets the question: ever seen a mentally weak player be able to fix a shot the way Sabalenka fixed her serve?
I don't see much difference between Coco and Aryna, mentally. I find they both compete well.

Fans and media still define Sabalenka by her tough losses, which is undeserved at this point, IMO. I think it's alaos because she is so demonstrative on court - you can see the struggle. She wears it on her sleeve. But that's good point about her serve. And she has overcome her demons on the biggest stage. She won the Slam in a super tight match against an opponent playing very well.

I think competing is one of Coco's great strengths. They both do, but for Coco, i'd say it's maybe her best strength. Aryna's are her firepower and serve.

[meganfernandez]

Kostyuk's husband is in her box wearing a hat that says SHAKE YOUR COCOS with an image of a split coconut on it

Yeah, they got married too young.

Kostyuk has fallen apart in the third. Such a sudden turn of events. She had a game point in the first game and a break point in the next. Has totally crumbled since losing them. Sad to see

Sabalenka is going to eat Coco alive.


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Spoiler Alert: Sabalenka hasn't made it into the SF's yet.

AS if Sabalenka can't at any point- especially in a Slam- turn in a terrible performance and/or choke?

Sure- a lot of players coulda/would beat the Coco that showed up in the first two sets today. But, you only have to beat the person in front of you.

NOT saying that Sabalenka can't eat Coco alive- ESPECIALLY if Coco again plays this crap-level. OR vice versa (i.e., it's Sabalenka). Who knows? But, it's not let any of the remaining players in the women's singles draw are unequivocally match-play mental giants. (AND, with the men's- there's only Novak, and, perhaps, Carlos). Entirely possible that there's gonna be a lot of match nuttiness with the remaining matches. With so many of the top players now gone.

IN general- with all that we all have seen through the years with tennis matches- I just don't get how often folks can be so definite about their results opinions- when quite often, we all end up being wrong.

I hear you on the certainty. Most matches are impossible to call, IMO. I wasn't as comfortable predicting Sabalenka to beat Anisimova or Krejcikova, or for Iga to get past Noskova or (theoretically) Svitolina or Coco past Kostyuk. This isn't just cynicism--it's just that they're all really, really good and upsets happen. I thought Krejcikova could have upset Sabalenka because she beat her last year, she's not intimidated by the occasion, she can pay sublime tennis, and she's in decent form if she's reaching the quarters. I wasn't certain that Sabalenka would win that match at all.

In retrospect, I shouldn't have thought Anisimova/Sabalenka would have been that close, given Sabalenka's form and Anisimova's lack of match play. But she has beaten Sabalenka a couple times, including at the AO, and I didn't know (most of us can't) what shape Anisimova is really in, if she was feeling the physical effects of playing a few matches for the first time in a while, etc.

Regarding Sabalenka vs Coco, my prediction is because Coco's level was terrible vs Kostyuk (17 winners to 51 errors for the match, 43% first serve in the third) and Sabalenka's has been off the charts. Sabalenka is also just the better player, by quite a bit - she should have won in New York. And I think she will learn from that loss. I think it will help her that it's not the final. All of those things together = Sabalenka crushing Coco, unless Coco raises her level a lot and Sabalenka has a mental block. Which could happen, of cousre. Kostyuk probably should have won the match last night, though - she utterly collapsed. I think her strategy of playing Coco's FH and being aggressive on the right ball would have won her the match if she had held her nerve, and Sabalenka will do the same and have her way with Coco's serve.

We talk about predictions with relativity - provisions are assumed. There are a nillion unknowns about every match, and of couse, anything can happen in sports.


Alt post;
100%, staking my life, Sabalenka will crush Coco.
I'm actually not sure she will happen tomorrow but she likely would have crushed her yesterday.

[jazzyg]

Sabalenka has been mentally weak multiple times in slam semis and she was again in the final of the U.S. Open last September. It's not the media searching for a tired angle. It's right there in front of us all.

That said, I'll be shocked if she loses to Gauff. She's playing like she did last year at this time, when I posted she might win the grand slam (hilariously wrong in retrospect). Even if Gauff plays a heck of a lot better than she did in the QF, Sabalenka is on another level, a level she was nowhere close to before they played in New York. She choked that day, but it was a result of not being particularly confident based on her form, when she should have lost to Keys in the semis.

If Sabalenka holds her nerve, the rematch will be a rout. If she doesn't, she still has built up enough confidence in the last five matches to overcome any wobble.

[jazzyg]

The Djokovic-Sinner match will be decided by a few points, and if Sinner wins it, he will beat whomever he faces in the final as long as he is healthy.

If it is Alcaraz as it very probably would be, Sinner has been the better player in that matchup on every surface. He found a way to lose their epic battle at the U.S. Open two years ago, but he's improved exponentially since then.

If it is Zverev or Medvedev or Hurkacz, the scoreline will be similar to the Rublev match.

[meganfernandez]

Sabalenka has been mentally weak multiple times in slam semis and she was again in the final of the U.S. Open last September. It's not the media searching for a tired angle. It's right there in front of us all.

That said, I'll be shocked if she loses to Gauff. She's playing like she did last year at this time, when I posted she might win the grand slam (hilariously wrong in retrospect). Even if Gauff plays a heck of a lot better than she did in the QF, Sabalenka is on another level, a level she was nowhere close to before they played in New York. She choked that day, but it was a result of not being particularly confident based on her form, when she should have lost to Keys in the semis.

If Sabalenka holds her nerve, the rematch will be a rout. If she doesn't, she still has built up enough confidence in the last five matches to overcome any wobble.

Sabalenka has also been mentally tough at times, too. Fixing her serve, winning the tight Slam final, beating Krejcikova at Indian Wells after losing to her the month before, the US Open semi when she came back against Keys. We fixate on the failures. Sure, she has demons but she has also overcome some of those demons. Is it proper/understandable to acknowledfge that aspect of her career? Sure, they aren't ancient past. But I think we still define her too much by them and give them too much weight in assessing her prospects.

God point about the confidence in her form. But she has been confident this week despite being obliterated by Rybakina before the AO. That's mental strength, right?

We will never be surprised when Sabalenka chokes. But I think she's more likely to close these days unless her opponent is red-lining, like Rybankina was.

[Suliso]

I think most of us will agree that Sabakenka is a strong favorite. Would we completely rule out Gauff? No...

As for Djokovic vs Sinner I'd really like it to be Sinner. Do I believe it will be? No...

[nelslus]

The Djokovic-Sinner match will be decided by a few points, and if Sinner wins it, he will beat whomever he faces in the final as long as he is healthy.

If it is Alcaraz as it very probably would be, Sinner has been the better player in that matchup on every surface. He found a way to lose their epic battle at the U.S. Open two years ago, but he's improved exponentially since then.

If it is Zverev or Medvedev or Hurkacz, the scoreline will be similar to the Rublev match.

WELL....assuming that this becomes a Alcaraz vs. Sinner final (AND, not exactly a set-in-stone result)....there's also the 2 Slam titles vs. 0 factor. AND, the point needs to be made that, Sinner's choke in their US Open match is quite the factor to be considered.

PS: Novak the Horrible Man Child is winning this.

[nelslus]

PS: Would I be shocked if Sinner does win this thing? Absolutely not. Certainly, ya gotta think that, health permitting- Sinner will at least win multiple Slam titles.

But, until he wins the first one.....