'24 Aus Open Day 15 Order of Play & Discussion

[Suliso]

Both Sinner and Medvedev has a massive amount of points to defend before the clay season. Given the huge gap both should easily stay in the top four, but probably not challenging for the top two spots yet.

[mick1303]

Well, that was impressive. A lot of players would have tightened up big time serving for it, but kudos to Sinner.

Yes he kept his head. Medvedev was on fumes. At least Jannik didn’t totally blow it.

Bummer for Daniil, but not despondent like Tennis Twitter is right now. They are acting like Daniil lost limbs in the battle. He will be fine.

The last time Medvedev lost the Australian Open final it took him a year to recover. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months with his results.

Different circumstances. This one should not hurt as much. Today he was not a favorite for the final. Also since nobody mentions it, the crowd behaved within normal. That was not the case in 2022.

[ashkor87]

Medvedev will recover fine.. last time he was upset because the crowd kept taunting and booing him..made him feel unwanted etc... nothing like that happened this time..

[SpeakNoEvil]

Great match. Sinner was extremely nervous at the beginning. He's shown a lot of composure up until then but I guess the magnitude of it being his first first grand slam final and being the big favourite is another thing to deal with entirely. He was really struggling with his serve and it didn't help that Medvedev seemed to be playing out of his skin at the beginning. It felt like the momentum shifted in the second, but after Medvedev closed out the set I started to wonder if that might break Sinner's heart completely. Obviously it helped Sinner a lot that Medvedev had spent so much more time on court - you could see he was breaking down physically bit by bit especially after all those gruelling rallies but Sinner still did well to pull it back. There were moments when he could have let Medvedev back into it and he rode through them. And I think having been through that experience now, he'll be stronger mentally the next time.

[Suliso]

I wonder what percentage of GS champions win their first final. Djokovic lost his first...

[meganfernandez]

I wonder what percentage of GS champions win their first final. Djokovic lost his first...

My first instinct is that it's about 50/50, skewing slightly more toward lost (maybe 60/40). After thinking about it, I expected the WTA to have produced more rookie winners with all the first-timers they've had lately. Conversely, on the ATP, I thought the Big 3 dominance would have skewed those numbers the other way, producing many rookie losers. Here's a fairly comprehensive list from in the last 20 years or so, off the top of my head. I'm sure I'm missing a few, and I wasn't consistent with how far I went back.

WTA - 22 WON FIRST SLAM FINAL
Serena
Davenport
Sabalenka
Rybakina
Iga
Barty
Osaka
Kerber
Kvitova
Azarenka
Mauresmo
Sharapova
Kuznetsova*
Stephens*
Kenin*
Krejcikova*
Raducanu*
Andreescu*
Majoli*
Myskina*
Schiavone*
Penatta*
* - only won one

WTA - 29 LOST FIRST SLAM FINAL
Venus
Henin
Vondrousova
Halep
Coco
Muguruza
Wozniacki
Bartoli
Ivanovic
Clijsters
Li Na
Stosur
Jankovic*
Muchova*
Brady*
Jabeur*
Collins*
Lisicki*
Zheng*
Leylah*
Pliskova*
Keys*
Bouchard*
Radwanska*
Zvonareva*
Dementieva*
Safina*
Safarova*
Vinci*
* - Slamless

ATP - 13 WON FIRST SLAM FINAL
Nadal
Federer
Alcaraz
Safin
Hewitt
Kuerten
Sinner*
Cilic*
DelPo*
Stan*
Roddick*
Gaudio*
Costa*
* - only won one

ATP - 14 LOST FIRST SLAM FINAL
Djokovic
Murray
Thiem
Medvedev
Ferrero
Ruud*
Zverev*
Tsitsipas*
Nishikori*
Nalbandian*
Tsonga*
Berdych*
Baghdatis*
Coria*
* - Slamless

[Suliso]

Let's see what we can find limiting to players who reached at least two GS finals starting from Agassi/Sampras generation:

Sampras W
Courier W
Stich W
Agassi L
Bruguera W
Kafelnikov W
Kuerten W
Rafter W
Korda L
Moya L
Safin W
Ivanisevic L
Hewitt W
Ferrero L
Federer W
Roddick W
Nadal W
Djokovic L
Murray L
Wawrinka W
Cilic W
Thiem L
Medvedev L
Alcaraz W

So the answer is that 62% of multi Slam finalists win their first final. In few cases that remains the only one, though (Roddick, Thiem, Cilic, Stich)

[skatingfan]

Different circumstances. This one should not hurt as much. Today he was not a favorite for the final. Also since nobody mentions it, the crowd behaved within normal. That was not the case in 2022.

I think you're probably right, but I have to think that the forehand that Medvedev hit long at 4-4 deuce in the 3rd set is the thing of nightmares. Hopefully he will bounce back quickly from this result, but it's still got to sting.

[mick1303]

I wonder what percentage of GS champions win their first final. Djokovic lost his first...

I also want to compose the stats on the opponents of the first slam winners. Fed had Philippoussis, who was not a slam winner, but not the first time in the finals. Nadal had Puerta, who was a rookie as well. So Sinner starts with a bang - Medvedev is a slam winner and multiple times finalist. No easy breaks for Jannik. Alcaraz is in the same group as Federer - Ruud was a finalist for a second time. In the end it will be interesting to compare 3 groups numerically.

[atlpam]

I wonder what percentage of GS champions win their first final. Djokovic lost his first...

My first instinct is that it's about 50/50, skewing slightly more toward lost (maybe 60/40). After thinking about it, I expected the WTA to have produced more rookie winners with all the first-timers they've had lately. Conversely, on the ATP, I thought the Big 3 dominance would have skewed those numbers the other way, producing many rookie losers. Here's a fairly comprehensive list from in the last 20 years or so, off the top of my head. I'm sure I'm missing a few, and I wasn't consistent with how far I went back.

WTA - 22 WON FIRST SLAM FINAL
Serena
Davenport
Sabalenka
Rybakina
Iga
Barty
Osaka
Kerber
Kvitova
Azarenka
Mauresmo
Sharapova
Kuznetsova*
Stephens*
Kenin*
Krejcikova*
Raducanu*
Andreescu*
Majoli*
Myskina*
Schiavone*
Penatta*
* - only won one

WTA - 29 LOST FIRST SLAM FINAL
Venus
Henin
Vondrousova
Halep
Coco
Muguruza
Wozniacki
Bartoli
Ivanovic
Clijsters
Li Na
Stosur
Jankovic*
Muchova*
Brady*
Jabeur*
Collins*
Lisicki*
Zheng*
Leylah*
Pliskova*
Keys*
Bouchard*
Radwanska*
Zvonareva*
Dementieva*
Safina*
Safarova*
Vinci*
* - Slamless

ATP - 13 WON FIRST SLAM FINAL
Nadal
Federer
Alcaraz
Safin
Hewitt
Kuerten
Sinner*
Cilic*
DelPo*
Stan*
Roddick*
Gaudio*
Costa*
* - only won one

ATP - 14 LOST FIRST SLAM FINAL
Djokovic
Murray
Thiem
Medvedev
Ferrero
Ruud*
Zverev*
Tsitsipas*
Nishikori*
Nalbandian*
Tsonga*
Berdych*
Baghdatis*
Coria*
* - Slamless

Just a small point but Stan should not be asterisked sine he won 3 slams.

[Fastbackss]

Is Daniil the first player ever to lose two GS finals after being up 2-0 in sets? I can't recall anybody else.
I guess... Karma, karma, karma.
.

First in the open era, yes

[ti-amie]

[ti-amie]

[nelslus]

I have to say this is a really disappointing performance by Sinner in his first GS final. Of course Medvedev is very good, but still...

.....FINALLY, The Powers of Suliso provide us with some good in the world!!!!



(Even if I am RATHER!!!! underwhelmed with Sinner.....)

[JTContinental]

I wonder what percentage of GS champions win their first final. Djokovic lost his first...

My first instinct is that it's about 50/50, skewing slightly more toward lost (maybe 60/40). After thinking about it, I expected the WTA to have produced more rookie winners with all the first-timers they've had lately. Conversely, on the ATP, I thought the Big 3 dominance would have skewed those numbers the other way, producing many rookie losers. Here's a fairly comprehensive list from in the last 20 years or so, off the top of my head. I'm sure I'm missing a few, and I wasn't consistent with how far I went back.

WTA - 22 WON FIRST SLAM FINAL
Serena
Davenport
Sabalenka
Rybakina
Iga
Barty
Osaka
Kerber
Kvitova
Azarenka
Mauresmo
Sharapova
Kuznetsova*
Stephens*
Kenin*
Krejcikova*
Raducanu*
Andreescu*
Majoli*
Myskina*
Schiavone*
Penatta*
* - only won one

WTA - 29 LOST FIRST SLAM FINAL
Venus
Henin
Vondrousova
Halep
Coco
Muguruza
Wozniacki
Bartoli
Ivanovic
Clijsters
Li Na
Stosur
Jankovic*
Muchova*
Brady*
Jabeur*
Collins*
Lisicki*
Zheng*
Leylah*
Pliskova*
Keys*
Bouchard*
Radwanska*
Zvonareva*
Dementieva*
Safina*
Safarova*
Vinci*
* - Slamless

ATP - 13 WON FIRST SLAM FINAL
Nadal
Federer
Alcaraz
Safin
Hewitt
Kuerten
Sinner*
Cilic*
DelPo*
Stan*
Roddick*
Gaudio*
Costa*
* - only won one

ATP - 14 LOST FIRST SLAM FINAL
Djokovic
Murray
Thiem
Medvedev
Ferrero
Ruud*
Zverev*
Tsitsipas*
Nishikori*
Nalbandian*
Tsonga*
Berdych*
Baghdatis*
Coria*
* - Slamless

Just a small point but Stan should not be asterisked sine he won 3 slams.

Kuznetsova has two slams as well