Covid-19 Updates & Info

[JazzNU]

Those numbers are stark. And that's what Meat Loaf was facing as a 74 year old and why Howard Stern was advocating for his family to speak out about getting the vaccine. Saying you'd rather be free and die than get a vaccine, and now you're dead doesn't feel the flex these guys think it is. Or maybe it is, can't ask them cause they're dead.

[JazzNU]

[JazzNU]

[ti-amie]

It makes you wonder what the real situation is with police and vaccinations doesn't it?

[JazzNU]

It makes you wonder what the real situation is with police and vaccinations doesn't it?

Police, fireman, EMT, and teachers. Highly suspect right now, especially those that got their shots in the final week or two or later on after their medical or religious exemption didn't get approved. Since they weren't just giving charging for fake cards but were also entering them into the state database, gotta start combing thru every record they entered. There must be a few thousand that ought to get fired off of this, I'm sure the actual number won't be that high, but I can dream.

[dryrunguy]

Here's the latest Situation Report. I kept seeing all sorts of references to Spotify over the weekend but didn't have the chance to look into it. Now I understand.

The section on the Omicron subvariants was interesting, too... That is, the speculation as to where these subvariants might originate and the possibility that existing vaccines may actually be more effective against one or more of these subvariants compared to previous variants. Science.

::

PANDEMIC VS ENDEMIC Even as the number of COVID-19 cases continue to reach record levels in some regions, those in the general public, members of the scientific community, and politicians are debating when the world can move on from the pandemic, arguments summarized as “pandemic vs endemic.” Some health officials from the US and Europe have recently expressed cautious optimism that their regions could be moving out of a pandemic state and into a period of endemic disease control, citing a different immunological landscape due to vaccination and previous infections, continued mitigation measures such as mask-wearing and testing, and newly available antiviral treatments. Other experts warn it is too soon to declare a pandemic endgame, saying global vaccination gaps and the threat of new, possibly more dangerous variants make predicting the pandemic’s path impossible. Still others are warning that endemicity does not mean COVID-19 becomes harmless, as other endemic diseases continue to cause substantial suffering and death. For example, HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis—all considered to be endemic in certain regions—continue to kill millions of people each year and, although relatively controlled in wealthy nations, linger in poorer, more vulnerable countries.

The surge of COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant is beginning to recede in regions of the US hit first, but other areas of the nation continue to experience record numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, creating various pandemic scenarios nationwide. In Europe, Denmark lifted all of its remaining COVID-19 restrictions last week, the first country on the continent to do so, while other nations, such as the UK and Austria, also are relaxing their rules. Thailand on January 27 adopted guidelines outlining how COVID-19 could become an endemic disease, but officials said it likely will still be between 6 months to a year before the country reaches that point. Research from Malawi, supported by evidence from other countries, suggests that a very high prevalence of the population in several African nations have already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, providing high levels of natural immunity and possibly signaling endemicity. While it remains unclear how the pandemic will reach an end, scientists agree that there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

OMICRON BA.2 Only about 2 months from first being detected, the highly transmissible Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus—the most common form of which is called BA.1—has become the predominant variant worldwide, accounting for nearly 99% of all sequenced cases as of the end of January. Scientists are now tracking a sublineage of the original Omicron variant known as BA.2, or “stealth Omicron,” as well as 2 other subvariants, BA.1.1529 and BA.3. A growing number of cases are being attributed to BA.2, including 82% of new cases in Denmark,* 9% in the UK, and 8% in the US. Though BA.2 appears to be even more transmissible than its cousin, according to a Danish study, vaccines remain effective—perhaps more so—against it than BA.1. The WHO has urged health agencies worldwide to begin investigating BA.2, and the US CDC last week said that while the subvariant is circulating at low levels in the country, there is no evidence it causes more severe disease than the BA.1 lineage.

In a study posted online last week on the preprint server bioRxiv, researchers describe unusual genetic mutations in Omicron’s BA.1 lineage and postulate that it likely evolved under unusual conditions, such as within the body of a person with a compromised immune system. The research—which suggests that Omicron developed over time and not in a stepwise fashion from the last variant, Delta—makes it clear that scientists are unable to predict how and where the next variant will evolve, nor whether it will be more transmissible or virulent.
*This high percentage could be attributable to Denmark’s robust sequencing program.

MODERNA VACCINE APPROVAL The US FDA on January 31 granted full approval to Moderna’s SARS-CoV-2 vaccine for the prevention of COVID-19 in adults aged 18 and older, the second such vaccine to receive approval in the US. The vaccine, to be marketed under the brand name Spikevax, is administered as 2 shots given 28 days apart and is the same formulation that has been available under emergency use authorization (EUA) since December 2020. The mRNA vaccine remains available under EUA as a third primary series dose for adults with certain types of immunocompromise and as a single booster dose for adults who originally received the same or different SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Moderna’s vaccine—which is already licensed in several other countries and regions, including Canada, Japan, Israel, UK, and the EU—is the company’s first FDA-approved product. The FDA is currently reviewing Moderna’s EUA application for authorization among teenagers ages 12 to 17.

Also on January 31, Novavax filed for authorization of its SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, which uses nanoparticles of the viral spike protein to elicit an immune response. According to the Associated Press, US regulators have urged Pfizer-BioNTech to apply for emergency authorization for a 2-dose regimen of their SARS-CoV-2 vaccine for children ages 6 months to 5 years while awaiting data on a 3-dose course. The companies’ vaccine, marketed as Comirnaty, was the first vaccine to receive FDA approval for people aged 16 years and older, and it is authorized for use among children aged 5 to 15 years.

PAXLOVID The European Medicines Agency (EMA) last week recommended Pfizer’s antiviral COVID-19 treatment Paxlovid for conditional marketing authorization. The European Commission will fast-track review the recommendation, and if approved, EU member states would be able to use the oral antiviral to treat adults with COVID-19 who are at risk of severe illness while they recover at home. Italy, Germany, and Belgium are among several European countries that have already purchased the drug.

VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS New findings from the UK Health Security Agency provide further evidence that booster doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are critical for protection against the Omicron variant. Two doses of a vaccine provided 60% protection from death around 6 months after the last dose in individuals 50 years and older, but a booster dose raised the protective efficacy to 95% 2 weeks after receipt of the shot. Uptake of booster doses is increasing in Europe but only approximately 50% of adults have received one as of late January. Modeling of the Omicron variant surge in Europe predicts that current levels of booster vaccinations could reduce the number of hospital admissions by 500,000-800,000, with further reductions of another 300,000-500,000 admissions if all previously vaccinated people received boosters. The assessment from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) also warns that countries with low vaccination rates are expected to face significant pressures on their hospital systems. Vaccines and booster doses remain one of the best tools for protecting individuals against death and reducing pressure on chronically overworked hospital staff.

Recent evidence indicates that current vaccine designs are still capable of providing protection against the Omicron variant sublineage BA.2. Protection against symptomatic infection 25 weeks after a second dose of vaccine is only around 13%, but the protective efficacy jumps to 70% 2 weeks after a booster dose. The jump in protective efficacy against symptomatic disease further highlights the role that booster doses can play in mitigating the severity of disease during the pandemic. The evidence that BA.2 does not escape immunity more than the original Omicron variant is welcome news after the immune escape shift seen between Delta and Omicron. However, a preprint report from Denmark suggests that the BA.2 variant may be 1.5 times more infectious than Omicron.

AT-HOME SARS-COV-2 TESTS Only 2 weeks after launching COVIDtests.gov, a website for US residents to order SARS-CoV-2 tests through the US Postal Service, about 60 million households have requested the tests so far, according to White House officials. The orders leave enough tests for about 65 million more households—about 260 million tests of the US government’s initial order of 500 million. Reportedly, the government plans to order an additional 500 million tests to increase availability. The US has been criticized for not having federal guidance on how to use testing as a COVID-19 mitigation strategy. But even when given FDA-authorized test instructions, a substantial proportion of test users misinterpret negative results of at-home self-tests by not taking into account the implications of a high-risk, pretest exposure and ignoring federal self-quarantine recommendations, according to a study published on January 31 in JAMA Internal Medicine. The researchers suggest that pilot-tested decision science-based instructions might help to increase test takers’ understanding of results and the tests’ usefulness to public health.

ADDITIONAL DOSES FOR IMMUNOCOMPROMISED Public health agencies around the world continue work to determine the effectiveness of additional or booster SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses for various populations, including healthcare workers, older adults, and people with compromised immune systems. A report published January 28 in the US CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) aimed to better understand the effects of a third mRNA vaccine dose in immunocompetent and immunocompromised individuals. In the study, a third dose increased vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-associated hospitalization from 82% to 97% among individuals with healthy immune systems and from 69% to 88% among people with immunocompromise. The researchers concluded the results support recommendations for a third mRNA vaccine dose as part of a primary series for immunocompromised adults or as a booster dose among immunocompetent adults.

Third doses of both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are authorized in the US as part of a primary series for people with immunocompromise, and in October 2021, the CDC recommended certain immunocompromised individuals receive a fourth, or booster, dose 6 months after their third shot. But some immunocompromised people say pharmacies have turned them away for a fourth dose. Last week, the CDC was expected to reinforce its messaging regarding fourth doses for certain immunocompromised individuals in a conference call with pharmacies. An estimated 7 million people in the US live with compromised immune systems, such as those with HIV or those taking immunosuppressive treatments for cancer or following an organ transplant. The US NIH announced this week it plans to study antibody responses to additional vaccine doses among kidney and liver transplant recipients who have had 2 to 4 previous vaccine doses but who did not have a detectable immune response. The study also will examine whether a concurrent reduction in immunosuppressive medication impacts antibody response.

CANADIAN PROTEST Thousands of Canadian truckers and other protesters made their way to Ottawa on January 29 as part of a so-called “Freedom Convoy” to protest vaccine mandates and other public health measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. The rally originated in British Columbia the week prior and consisted of trucks and their supporters driving across the country to the nation’s capital. The original goal of the rally was to protest a mandate put in place on January 15 that required all unvaccinated cross-border truckers to quarantine upon returning home, but the message has since shifted to a general condemnation of all public health interventions. Media reported that people and vehicles clogged the streets of Ottawa making noise and bringing the city to a standstill, but the rally was largely peaceful.

The “Freedom Convoy” rally has been shrouded in controversy since before the event. The Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA) directly opposed the rally and urged the public to be aware that many of the individuals who are speaking out have no direct connection to the trucking industry. Canadian government officials and the CTA also claim that approximately 90% of the nation’s truckers are already vaccinated and that the individuals participating in the rally represent a fringe minority group. The controversy began heating up when a GoFundMe for the rally raised C$5.5 million (US$4.3 million) in a short time. GoFundMe froze the account for discussions with the organizers, and a former intelligence analyst stated that the speed and anonymity of the donations raised red flags. The analyst also said there is clear activity from foreign countries on the GoFundMe page. Additionally, there are reports that some protestors espouse anti-Semitic and racist views and waved Nazi flags during the rally, defecated in the streets, harassed staff at a local homeless shelter, and at least one protester danced on Canada’s Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Some protestors called for an attack on the Canadian Parliament similar to the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. By midday on January 31, many of the protestors had left the area. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—who is isolating at an undisclosed location after announcing this week he tested positive for COVID-19—said he would not be intimidated by the protestors. The rally notably garnered support from a former US president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., and a tech billionaire, Elon Musk.

COVID-19 MISINFORMATION The music streaming platform Spotify was in the spotlight over the weekend after Canadian music icon Neil Young criticized the service for hosting a podcast by comedian Joe Rogan, who has come under fire for spreading COVID-19 misinformation. Late last week, Young called for his music to be removed from Spotify in protest, and he was later joined by other legendary artists Joni Mitchell and Nils Lofgren. Other popular podcast hosts on Spotify, including Brene Brown and Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, expressed concerns over the platform’s handling of pandemic misinformation. The hashtags #CancelSpotify, #DeleteSpotify, and #ByeSpotify were trending on social media. Spotify removed Young’s music over the weekend, and Spotify Chief Executive Daniel Ek on January 30 published transparency rules, saying the streaming service would add advisories before any content that discusses the virus and link to Spotify’s COVID-19 hub. Rogan responded in a video posted to Instagram, saying he would interview doctors with different opinions right after he talks to “the controversial ones.” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus thanked Young on Twitter “for standing up against misinformation and inaccuracies around #COVID19 vaccination.”

Meanwhile, in an address to the International Catholic Media Consortium on COVID-19 Vaccines on January 28, Pope Francis said that spreading misinformation and fake news regarding COVID-19 and vaccines constitutes a violation of human rights. His comments were the second time in less than a month that he has addressed misleading information about COVID-19. Pope Francis called on journalists to help the public better understand scientific facts and address the spreading “infodemic.”

[mmmm8]

Can you imagine how strongly you have to believe the 5G microchip BS to PAY for a fake card and risk being fired or charged with fraud when you can just easily get the vaccine for free?

[Suliso]

Joe “just conversations” Rogan defends misinformation like a classic grifter

Money, misinformation, & snake oil: Joe Rogan has a lot in common with Gwyneth Paltrow.

Long before the pandemic took the lives of more than 5.6 million people and created a lucrative market for COVID grifts, misinformation, and snake oil, there was Goop.

The aspirational lifestyle brand and its lustrous "contextual commerce" products are helmed by actor Gwyneth Paltrow, who has used her fame, wealth, and enviable genetics to peddle all manner of wellness pseudoscience and quackery. With the manipulative mantra of "empowering" women to seize control of their health and destinies, Paltrow's Goop has touted extremely questionable—if not downright dangerous—products. Perhaps the most notorious is the jade egg, a $66 egg-shaped rock Goop advised women to shove up their vaginas while claiming it could treat medical conditions, "detox" lady bits, and invigorate mystical life forces (of course).

But let's not forget the $135 "Implant O'Rama" enema device intended to squirt scalding coffee into your colon, the $90 luxury vitamins that almost certainly do nothing, or the $85 "medicine bag" of small, polished rocks that Goop suggests have magical wellness properties. Then there was the bee-sting therapy—no, not therapy for bee stings but therapy imparted from bee stings. Paltrow personally endorsed the practice, which was blamed for the death of a 55-year-old Spanish woman in 2018.

And, of course, Goop embraces the long-standing hokum known as homeopathy, which essentially claims ritualized dilutions of poisons can cure disease and anthropomorphic water molecules can remember how to heal you. (A startling number of homeopathic products are for sale in the US, including baby teething tablets and gels linked to the deaths of 10 infants and poisonings of 400 others.)

Lucrative business

Since Goop's pre-pandemic heyday of generating startling headlines with brazen balderdash, the company has toned down some of its marketing, added disclaimers to products and endorsements, settled lawsuits, and paid out six-figure penalties for making false health claims. But in case you're concerned that any of this hurt Goop's bottom line or had Paltrow reconsidering her business, don't worry. As of late last year, Goop was valued at more than $430 million. The Goop website is still happy to tell you that your liver and kidneys don't work and you need to "detox."

Alas, Goop's success is yet another example of how hawking misinformation, pseudoscience, and nostrum to the disaffected is extremely lucrative. Though, to be fair, most peddlers of nonsense don't have anything close to Paltrow's glamorous flare. In fact, as Goop responded to backlash from health experts in 2017, we all got to witness the Oscar winner-turned-CEO's deft defense of her chic bottles of snake oil. It was truly a master class of elite-level quackery—one that clearly reverberates today.

Paltrow's 2017 defense of Goop sprung to my mind as I read the transcript of Joe Rogan's recent nonapology for hosting, elevating, and endorsing an endless stream of harmful misinformation about COVID-19 on his $100 million podcast. Among other things, he has promoted unproven and potentially dangerous treatments, spread falsehoods and misinformation about vaccines, and downplayed the risks of the virus, which—again—has killed more than 5.6 million people worldwide and counting.

I won't spend time debunking all of Rogan's bunkum. Plenty of outlets have done that work—see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, etc. The fact that his podcast is rife with misinformation and falsehoods is not in question. Last month, hundreds of doctors and public health experts called out Spotify in an open letter for allowing Rogan to continue spewing "false and societally harmful assertions" about the pandemic. The misinformation is why he gave his nonapology in the first place.

Instead, I'll focus on his defense of platforming misinformation because, just like Paltrow's defense of Goop, Rogan's rationalizations are a modern, skillful take on a classic snake oil sales pitch. In fact, if you plucked sentences from each without attribution, you'd have a killer quackery-themed Mad Libs, as well as a challenging guessing game of "who said it best?"

The defense

To start, the Paltrows and Rogans of the world just want to ask questions and have conversations to get to the truth—like, the real truth. Rogan is famous for defending misinformation presented on his podcast by saying he's "just asking questions." In addressing the Spotify controversy on Instagram, Rogan repeatedly noted that his podcast is "just conversations."

"I'm interested in finding out what the truth is," he elaborated. "And I'm interested in having interesting conversations with people that have differing opinions. I'm not interested in only talking to people that have one perspective."

"We always welcome conversation," Paltrow agreed back in 2017. "That's at the core of what we're trying to do. What we don't welcome is the idea that questions are not OK. Being dismissive... seems like the most dangerous practice of all."

Being dismissive of debunked, absurd, or verifiably incorrect ideas is bad because, well, maybe those ideas are actually correct, Paltrow and Rogan seemed to suggest. You never know until you ask! "Asking questions is the job of all of us," Paltrow emphasized. "There is much that we do not know."

And of course, one can't always just ask experts what the answers are and take them at face value. People should do their own research and figure things out on their own to be sure they can completely trust that information, Paltrow and Rogan argued. "I'm interested in finding out what is correct and also finding out how people come to these conclusions and what the facts are," Rogan explained.

Paltrow echoed the point: "We simply want information; we want autonomy over our health. That's why we do unfiltered Q&As, so you can hear directly from doctors; we see no reason to interpret or influence what they're saying to tell you what to think."

Slide into misinformation

After all, expertise is a slippery business; it's both something to be skeptical of and something to bolster whatever your opinion is, according to Rogan and Paltrow. For instance, highly credentialed, intelligent, and accomplished experts often come to a scientific consensus based on current evidence and sound analysis, forming a mainstream opinion. Yet fringe scientists who spout misleading information or falsehoods or have a clear agenda could still be worth amplifying because, as Paltrow and Rogan argued, they do have fancy credentials, too. As Rogan noted of two particularly troubling guests of his show, "These people are very highly credentialed, very intelligent, very accomplished people. And they have an opinion that's different from the mainstream narrative."

Paltrow presented a similar conundrum. "These are the doctors we regularly feature on Goop: doctors who publish in peer-reviewed journals; doctors who trained at the best institutions; doctors who are repeatedly at the forefront of medicine; doctors who persistently and aggressively maintain an open mind," she said.

With expertise in question, the slippery slope into misinformation continued as both questioned whether evidence-based medicine and scientific consensus can even be trusted at all. "The thing about science and medicine is that it evolves all the time," Paltrow noted. "Studies and beliefs that we held sacred even in the last decade have since been proven to be unequivocally false, and sometimes even harmful," she added, without providing any examples of such disproven "sacred" scientific "beliefs."

Rogan, too, made such a claim. "The problem I have with the term 'misinformation,' especially today, is that many of the things that we thought of as misinformation just a short while ago are now accepted as fact," Rogan said.

In this world where conversations are always innocent, facts can't be verified, experts can't be vetted, and science can't be trusted, there's a lot of room to peddle unproven products and harmful misinformation. It's exactly the world Paltrow and Rogan want you to buy into.

"I want to show all kinds of opinions so that we can all figure out what's going on—and not just about COVID, about everything about health, about fitness, wellness, the state of the world itself," Rogan said.

In the meantime, you can check out products from a health company he promotes called Onnit, which sells Alpha Brain Black Label vitamins for $124.95 per 80-count bottle. There's also the $147.95 Quad Mace, which Onnit claims has origins in ancient Persia and represents the company's embrace of various "training modalities."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02 ... c-grifter/

[ponchi101]

Thanks for that. I like that this person is calling out Paltrow, who is truly a menace to critical thinking. She is the epitome of that disease my smart friend N suffers: smart people that are actually unable to spot falsehoods. And she is smart: she has that $430 MM company so, that is a big achievement.
They are unable to spot the logical flaws in their reasoning and always come back to a few, key points: "Some things in the past that were considered wrong now are considered right". They miss the point that they were considered right AFTER applying proper science, not their bogus ideas.
Anyway, preaching to the choir.

[ti-amie]

Grifters gonna grift.

[dryrunguy]

Here's the latest Situation Report. The issue about vaccinating children under 5 is really complicated stuff, and the data are seriously lacking.

::

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Dashboard reports 380 million cumulative cases and 5.68 million deaths worldwide as of February 2. The global weekly incidence increased for the 15th consecutive week, up to 23.2 million new cases (+1.4% compared to the previous week)—once again, setting a new record. The trend appears to be tapering off, which could indicate that the Omicron surge is peaking on the global level. The Eastern Mediterranean, European, and Western Pacific regions continue to report record high weekly totals, but the other regions appear to be past their respective Omicron peaks. Notably, South-East Asia’s peak appears to be only its second highest since the onset of the pandemic, while all of the other regions recently set new weekly incidence records. Global weekly mortality increased for the fourth consecutive week, up 13.9% from the previous week. The weekly total of 63,298 deaths is the highest since the week of August 30, 2021. Based on trends observed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, we expect the weekly mortality to continue increasing over the next several weeks before it peaks.

Global Vaccination
The cumulative global SARS-CoV-2 vaccine doses administered surpassed 10 billion. The WHO reported 10.04 billion cumulative doses administered globally as of February 2. A total of 4.79 billion individuals have received at least 1 dose, and 4.13 billion are fully vaccinated. Analysis from Our World in Data indicates that the overall trend in global daily vaccinations continues to decline steadily from the most recent high of 38 million doses per day in early January 2022 to 20.7 million.* Our World in Data estimates that there are 4.82 billion vaccinated individuals worldwide (1+ dose; 61.2% of the global population) and 4.18 billion who are fully vaccinated (53.1% of the global population).
*The average daily doses administered may exhibit a sharp decrease for the most recent data, particularly over the weekend, which indicates effects of reporting delays. In an effort to reflect the longer-term trends, the numbers reported here may not correspond to the most recent data.

UNITED STATES
The US CDC is currently reporting 75.3 million cumulative cases of COVID-19 and 888,784 deaths. The US is averaging 415,552 new cases and 2,369 deaths per day.* Sufficient time has elapsed since the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday to assess the longer-term US trends, and it appears that the US has passed the peak of its Omicron surge at the national level—although this varies at regional and state levels. The surge began in earnest in mid-December 2021, and daily incidence peaked at a record high of 805,904 new cases per day on January 15, 2022. The trend has decreased rapidly since then, falling by nearly half over the second half of January. Daily mortality continues to increase, surpassing the spring 2020 peak—2,297 on April 21, 2020—which makes the Omicron surge the second highest peak daily mortality to date. Based on trends observed over the course of the pandemic, we expect daily mortality to peak sometime in the next week or so, lagging the trend in daily incidence by 3-4 weeks.
*Changes in state-level reporting may affect the accuracy of recently reported data, particularly over weekends. In an effort to reflect the longer-term trends, the numbers reported here may not correspond to the most recent dates.

US Vaccination
The US surpassed 250 million individuals who have received at least 1 vaccine dose, which corresponds to more than 75% of the entire US population. The US has administered 668 million cumulative doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Daily vaccinations continue to decline, down from the most recent peak of 1.77 million doses per day on December 6 to 644,000 on January 28.* Among adults, 87.0% have received at least 1 dose, as well as 25.6 million children under the age of 18. A total of 212 million individuals are fully vaccinated**, which corresponds to 63.9% of the total population. Approximately 74.2% of adults are fully vaccinated, as well as 20.5 million children under the age of 18. Since August 13, 88.6 million individuals have received an additional or booster dose. This corresponds to 41.8% of fully vaccinated individuals, including 64.5% of fully vaccinated adults aged 65 years or older.
*Due to delays in reporting, estimates for the average daily doses administered are less accurate for the most recent 5 days. The most current average provided here corresponds to 5 days ago.
**Full original course of the vaccine, not including additional or booster doses.

VACCINE FOR <5 CHILDREN At the request of the US FDA over concerns about an increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations among children, Pfizer and BioNTech announced they have initiated a “rolling submission” that seeks an amendment to the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the companies’ SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that would expand eligibility to children as young as 6 months. The companies expect to complete the application in “the coming days,” and it will cover the first 2 doses of an expected 3-dose primary series using a 3 µg dosage for this age group. Data on the third dose, which is administered at least 8 weeks after the second dose, is expected to be available in the coming months, and a subsequent determination on further expanding the EUA to a full 3-dose series would need to be addressed at that time. Pfizer Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla indicated that Pfizer expects 3 doses to be necessary to provide adequate protection, but the initial EUA for 2 doses will enable children to begin that series while awaiting the final determination on the third dose. Review by the FDA and US CDC could potentially be completed this month. The FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) will discuss the issue at its meeting scheduled for February 15.

The unusual and aggressive plan is raising concerns among some vaccine experts who argue that the FDA’s willingness to consider an EUA for a vaccine that has yet to demonstrate efficacy could risk increasing vaccine hesitancy and anti-vaccine sentiment and negatively affect vaccine uptake among young children. There are 2 principal concerns. First, the FDA is evaluating data from only 2 doses of a possible 3-dose series, without any data available yet for that third dose. And second, the small-scale trials may not be sufficient to capture adverse events that would emerge in larger trials.

Early clinical trial data published in December 2021 showed that a 2-dose series failed to elicit sufficient antibody responses in children aged 2-4 years, although children aged 6-23 months produced antibodies similar to older individuals. Notably, the Phase 2b/3 clinical trials were designed only to determine if the vaccine stimulated an immune response similar to older individuals—since previous trials demonstrated efficacy corresponding to that degree of antibody response—so traditional efficacy estimates are not available for young children. The early clinical trial data showed minimal adverse events, but there is concern that additional adverse events could be missed without larger trials. To date, only about 20% of children aged 5-11 years are fully vaccinated. A recent poll found that only 31% of parents of children under 5 years plan to vaccinate their child as soon as a vaccine is available, and some experts argue that speeding the EUA process is unlikely to make a substantial impact on vaccination coverage.

BOOSTER EFFECTIVENESS An early release published in the US CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report examining infection and hospitalization rates in Los Angeles County, California, depicts stark differences among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals from November 7 to January 8, a period spanning the end of Delta variant predominance and the beginning of Omicron’s predominance. Data were further stratified among vaccinated individuals to include those with and without a booster to show booster effectiveness. For the 14-day period ending December 11, also the last week of Delta predominance, incidence and hospitalization rates among unvaccinated individuals were 12.3 and 83.0 times, respectively, those of boosted fully vaccinated individuals, and 3.8 and 12.9 times, respectively, those of fully vaccinated individuals without a booster. During the period ending January 8, when Omicron gained predominance, the rate ratios dropped, but vaccinated persons remained better protected. Unvaccinated individuals had infection and hospitalization rates 3.6 and 23.0 times, respectively, those of fully vaccinated persons with a booster and 2.0 and 5.3 times, respectively, those of fully vaccinated persons without a booster. According to Los Angeles County Department of Public Health data, 71% of county residents were fully vaccinated as of January 8.

During a White House briefing on February 2, US CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky shared data from 25 US jurisdictions showing unvaccinated individuals were 14 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than fully vaccinated individuals and unvaccinated individuals were 97 times more likely to die than people who were fully vaccinated and boosted. According to an analysis of Omicron’s impact conducted by the Financial Times, nearly half of US COVID-19-related hospitalizations this winter could have been prevented if the nation had vaccination coverage similar to leading European countries. About 64% of the total US population is fully vaccinated, and only 42% of eligible individuals have received a booster dose.

PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS An analysis of pandemic preparedness across 177 countries and territories published this week in The Lancet suggests that trust—both in the government and among people—could be a driving factor behind why COVID-19 hit some countries harder than others. Trust in government and fellow citizens was strongly associated with higher vaccination rates and decreased mobility, an indicator of social distancing. Notably, no associations were found between COVID-19 outcomes and democracy, populism, government effectiveness, universal healthcare, pandemic preparedness metrics, economic inequality, or trust in science. The researchers estimated that if every country had the same level of government or interpersonal trust as Denmark, which ranks in the 75th percentile for these indicators, global infections between January 1, 2020, and September 30, 2021, might have been reduced by 12.9% for government trust and 40.3% for interpersonal trust. Other factors that explained the most variation in COVID-19 infection-fatality rate (IFR) included a country’s age profile, GDP per capita, and national mean body mass index (BMI). The researchers suggest that countries prepare for the next pandemic by investing in risk communication and community engagement to improve trust in public health guidance, as well as improving health promotion to reduce risks, such as BMI, associated with fatality.

Meanwhile in the US, a bipartisan duo of US Senate lawmakers is expected to introduce a new bill aimed at strengthening the government’s response to a future pandemic. The draft bill includes measures that would establish a 9/11-style bipartisan commission to formally investigate the US pandemic response and require Senate confirmation for the director of the US CDC. The effort—being led by Senators Patty Murray, a Democrat from Washington, and Richard Burr, a Republican from North Carolina—includes several other proposals outlining CDC oversight and tasks, better defining the role of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR), requiring collaboration between the US NIH and other agencies, and ensuring manufacturing capabilities for pandemic tools such as vaccines and therapeutics. Additionally, senior administration officials, public health experts, and US lawmakers are taking stock of the US global COVID-19 strategy, urging more investment in global vaccination coverage and warning that leaving unfilled gaps risks the emergence of new variants. A group of Democrats in the US House is calling for an additional US$17 billion in federal funding for global vaccination delivery and infrastructure. Others are expressing concern over US President Joe Biden’s structuring of authority overseeing the US global COVID-19 strategy. The White House recently published a fact sheet on the Biden administration’s commitment to global health, and NIH issued a press release outlining the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ (NIAID) Pandemic Preparedness Plan.

COVID-19 IN US PRISONS Deaths among incarcerated populations in the US increased 46% from 2019 to 2020, as well as increased 32% among people on parole and 6% among people on probation, according to new data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) analyzed by the Prison Policy Initiative. While researchers cannot yet say specifically that the increase is due to COVID-19, they do attribute many of the deaths to the pandemic in some way: directly from infections, a lack of access to regular health care, increases in overdoses and suicides, or a general burden on the correctional system. Since the start of the pandemic, nearly 3,000 incarcerated people have died of COVID-19, including about 300 in federal custody. Notably, imprisoned people are about 3 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than the general population, when data are adjusted for the population’s younger age. Since the emergence of Omicron, prisons across the US are witnessing an alarming increase in COVID-19 cases. In mid- to late-January, at least 7 federal prisons had triple-digit increases in new COVID-19 cases.

US President Joe Biden’s National Strategy for the COVID-19 Response, released in January 2021, included 2 pledges specifically addressing COVID-19 in prisons. One called for the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to facility staff and incarcerated individuals in jails, prisons, and detention centers. Today, nearly 70% of the federal prison population is fully vaccinated, but the US Bureau of Prisons (BOP) has not conducted the educational efforts needed to address people with questions regarding medical concerns or distrust of the system, according to advocates. A second pledge promised an executive order to require the BOP and the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to evaluate their COVID-19 protocols, release data on cases, and use federal grant funding for state and local facilities to also follow public health guidance, but the order never came. Advocates say there has been some progress, including on accessibility to SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing and allowing people who were released to home confinement to remain so instead of returning to prison. However, the deteriorating situation in several prison systems since the emergence of the Omicron variant suggests that the response inside of federal, state, local, and private prisons remains inadequate 2 years into the pandemic.

HUMAN CHALLENGE TRIAL The first COVID-19 human challenge clinical trial was found to be safe in healthy young adults, according to the latest not-yet-peer-reviewed data. The Human Challenge Programme—run by Open Orphan, Imperial College London, and other partners—exposed 36 healthy adult volunteers aged 18 to 29 with no immunity to SARS-CoV-2 to the original strain of the virus and monitored them in a quarantine setting, where no serious adverse events occurred. The trial produced several clinical outcomes that could inform public health policy, including that symptoms in infected persons began to develop an average of 2 days following exposure—earlier than the widely accepted 5 days—and that infectious virus peaks around 5 days, when the virus is more concentrated in the nose versus the throat. The researchers plan to monitor participants for 12 months following discharge. Imperial College said it plans to use the trial model with the Delta variant and share the framework to allow similar research around the world, aiming to provide an accelerated route for testing new vaccines, antivirals, and diagnostics.

HEALTHCARE WASTE The COVID-19 pandemic response has generated tens of thousands of metric tons of extra medical waste, straining healthcare waste management systems, threatening human health and the environment, and highlighting an urgent need to improve waste management protocols, according to a WHO report released this week. The analysis only takes into account the amount of potential waste generated through shipments from a joint UN emergency initiative and does not account for COVID-19-related commodities procured outside of the initiative or waste generated by the public. The report estimates that 87,000 metric tons of personal protective equipment (PPE); 2,600 metric tons of non-infectious mainly plastic waste, such as test kits; 144,000 metric tons of vaccine-related waste including syringes, needles, and safety boxes; and 731,000 liters of chemical waste were produced solely through the UN initiative. Overall, the WHO estimates the pandemic has increased healthcare waste loads up to 10 times, potentially exposing workers to needle-stick injuries, burns, and infections, and local communities to poorly managed landfills and carcinogens from improperly incinerated waste. The report encourages countries to see this as an opportunity to revamp waste streams, recommending healthcare facilities and the public responsibly use and dispose of waste and calling for investment into innovative waste treatment technologies and the use of more reusable, recyclable, or biodegradable materials.

TONGA The South Pacific archipelago nation of Tonga went into lockdown on February 2 after at least 5 people were diagnosed with COVID-19. Two port workers in the capital city Nuku’alofa contracted the virus and then transmitted it to 3 family members, marking the first time the country has recorded community transmission. Concerns were high that an influx of international ships and planes delivering needed food, water, and supplies following a devastating volcanic eruption and tsunami would bring SARS-CoV-2 to Tonga, which previously had only 1 recorded COVID-19 case in a visitor. It is unclear how the workers contracted the virus. All foreign aid deliveries have been conveyed using contactless protocols, but the workers dealt with commercial ships at a different wharf. Under the lockdown, domestic flights are grounded, boats are disallowed from traveling between islands, schools are closed, most people are required to remain at home, and masking is encouraged in all public spaces. The lockdown will be reviewed every 48 hours, according to officials.

https://covid19.who.int/

[ti-amie]

[ponchi101]

I have started a poll because I am truly at odds with what to do with the pandemic, and I am hoping for some TAT2.0 wisdom to help me through.
Vote will be anonymous. Your name will not show. I will vote only after some people have done so, to avoid prompting others.
Comments are, of course, welcome.

[atlpam]

I have started a poll because I am truly at odds with what to do with the pandemic, and I am hoping for some TAT2.0 wisdom to help me through.
Vote will be anonymous. Your name will not show. I will vote only after some people have done so, to avoid prompting others.
Comments are, of course, welcome.

Voted, but I'm not really sure what "back to normal" really means anymore.
I am planning to retire in a couple months and haven't seen any of my co-workers in 2 years. Intent is to do some travelling for the next few years, but will likely start domestically as it's still complicated to plan international travel with all the different requirements in play. It may sound crazy but 2 years into this, I have yet to take a Covid test. (knocking on wood)

[JazzNU]

I have started a poll because I am truly at odds with what to do with the pandemic, and I am hoping for some TAT2.0 wisdom to help me through.
Vote will be anonymous. Your name will not show. I will vote only after some people have done so, to avoid prompting others.
Comments are, of course, welcome.

Clarification. In the third option, does "drop some mandates" mean get rid of some mandates or impose some mandates? And do you view restrictions differently than mandates in option 2? I'm assuming Option 2 is more lenient than Option 3 just based on the order of the choices.