An early look at the US Open

[Canucklehead]

I could come up with and post a list of players whom I believe will be contenders or win the US Open, but honestly all that will prove is how much I actually do not know about who is going to be the contenders or who is going to the Slam.

You just basically described a rite of passage for this site. The "Test of the Fumbler"

I could also post a list of like 15 to 20 players and if one of them does so happen to win the tournament, I can then say, "Oh look, I told you so." When actually, I didn't have a snowball's chance in hell what I was talking about.

[ponchi101]

Oh, we did that last year, on the women's side. Remember what happened?

[Canucklehead]

Oh, we did that last year, on the women's side. Remember what happened?

That looks like a severe headache is what happened.

[Deuce]

on the women's , yes, more but 6-8 at most:
Swiatek, Osaka , Rybakina (ok, I can understand that one), Andreescu if the courts are slow,
Leylah and Raducanu if they are fast. Add BHM to the mix (that's a stretch... but... ok) ..nobody outside these is going to win!

Yes - of course Leylah and Emma are among the few favourites this year - because they made the final last year, and so that qualifies them as favourites this year .
Especially because Emma's results are piss poor over the past 11 months, and Leylah is just returning from a stress fracture in her foot which kept her away from competitive matches for 2 months.

Indeed, all the criteria are there for them to be favourites!

.

[ashkor87]

We shall see, won't we?

[ashkor87]

Actually, Zheng should be considered, especially if the courts are slow..she showed her prowess at RG and again in Toronto .hits hard and deep, pure aggression...

[ashkor87]

Whomever wins Montreal will be a contender. And the finalist too.
Same for Cincy (in the men's).
And, yes, our disagreement is expected by now Because: I see no way, whatsoever, that Osaka is a contender this year, nor Rybakina, and your faith in Raducanu is exemplary. If she draws any player ranked 33-40, she loses in the first round.
And I still will pick OTHER.

Only if his name is Nadal...the only person who has won all 3 in the same year

[ponchi101]

Serious here.
So, you are saying that if, for example, Tommy Paul takes Montreal by beating Kyrgios in the final (I don't know which side of the draw they are in right this moment) that would still mean NOTHING about his chances at the USO? A recent win on a similar surface would be meaningless.
But, at the same time, Raducanu should be considered a favorite because of last year's win, despite the fact she has done nothing since.
You are a tough customer, Ashkor. Anybody winning Canada or Cincy should have a few chips in his/her game to win the USO.

[meganfernandez]

Serious here.
So, you are saying that if, for example, Tommy Paul takes Montreal by beating Kyrgios in the final (I don't know which side of the draw they are in right this moment) that would still mean NOTHING about his chances at the USO? A recent win on a similar surface would be meaningless.
But, at the same time, Raducanu should be considered a favorite because of last year's win, despite the fact she has done nothing since.
You are a tough customer, Ashkor. Anybody winning Canada or Cincy should have a few chips in his/her game to win the USO.

Of course they do. Most semifinalists and finalists, too. We tend to focus only on winners - depends on how they won. Predicting who will win is a totally different story, and pretty much a fool's errand.

Strong results = form and confidence. B3/B5 and seven matches does make a big difference. On the men's side, the argument against this is that Djokovic and Nadal are heavy favorites regardless of their lead-up preparation. So I agree that a Canada or Cincy winner won't knock them off the favorite pedestal, but could be a 2nd-tier candidate. IT depends on who it is and who they beat. If Botic manages to win Cincy without beating a Top 5 player, for instance, I'm not sure I'd put him as a 2nd-tier favorite. If FAA does by beating Tsitsipas or Medvedev, I would.

Women's side has its own nuances. They don't go from B3 to B=5, but the parity balances out winning form.

[AshBartyfan]

I think Badosa could win this year.

[meganfernandez]

Serious here.
So, you are saying that if, for example, Tommy Paul takes Montreal by beating Kyrgios in the final (I don't know which side of the draw they are in right this moment) that would still mean NOTHING about his chances at the USO? A recent win on a similar surface would be meaningless.
But, at the same time, Raducanu should be considered a favorite because of last year's win, despite the fact she has done nothing since.
You are a tough customer, Ashkor. Anybody winning Canada or Cincy should have a few chips in his/her game to win the USO.

Of course they do. Most semifinalists and finalists, too.

Edit: Not PCB. I mean, could he, really?

[meganfernandez]

I think Badosa could win this year.

Love her, so I'm curious why you think so. I wish! Don't know what made her retire mid-match in Toronto.

[AshBartyfan]

I saw her match against Gauff last week and I was truly impressed. Her game really suits to hardcourts. Hope she will recover soon.

[ponchi101]

...

Edit: Not PCB. I mean, could he, really?

Two time USO SF P. Carreño Busta, who made one such SF as early as 2020, and was only one set away from the final?
Uhm, damn good question. Could this guy, with limited weapons, win the USO? Lleyton Hewitt, with limited weapons too, did. He would need to have other players take out some big guns, but PCB is solid. That is his sole excellent trait, but you have had solid players reach the final before. Hewitt, Chang, Pioline.
Tier 2, but this Open will be open, especially if Novak is finally unable to play.

[AcesAnnie]

I say Rafa has to be considered a favorite for the US Open. I imagine he has been taking care of his abdominal issue and will be 100% ready for the US Open. Medvedev can give him problems if they meet in the later rounds, but Rafa should be there in the end.

Someone on the ladies side who has a big, but erratic serve in Karolina Pliskova could also make waves in the tournament.